{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e5703775-527e-4579-ac4c-1154f11bf512", "symbol": "CSBR", "name": "Champions Oncology Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.645, "architecture_energy": 50.212, "architecture_maturity": 27.639, "architecture_confidence": 91.165, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.71, "rotation_up": 17.16, "upward_expansion": 14.5, "deceleration": 33.47, "rotation_down": 61.52, "downward_expansion": 83.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.590667, 5.817091, 5.918833, 5.949054 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 5.19, "trend_reference": 6.073667, "distance_from_trend": -0.145491, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.273399, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.172697, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.84009, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.207634, "excess_performance": -0.395087, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.145491, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040849, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.172697, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.130689, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.288401, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042026, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.207634, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.748345, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 56801, "relative_activity": 1.309245, "balance": 0.748345, "dry_up": 1.189127, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.141949, "annualized_volatility": 0.403487, "from_high_reference": -0.406178, "from_low_reference": 0.038 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.073667, "fair_value_reference": 6.273399, "structural_low": 5.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.062963, "positive_rate": 0.263158, "directional_follow_through": 0.263158, "median_excess_return": -0.072614, "regime_survival": 0.473684, "best_return": 0.847345, "worst_return": -0.194059, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.082627, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.140547, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 1.274336, "worst_return": -0.432911, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.124834, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.230688, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.298673, "worst_return": -0.464, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.160182, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.294599, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.446903, "worst_return": -0.316456, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.041152, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.115956, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.013363, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.019912, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.185624, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.190419, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.374865, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.107717, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.057441, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.230961, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.067083, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.136499, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.09152, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.178797, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 6.5, "volume": 18179, "typical_volume": 43697.55, "trend": 5.23984, "fair_value": 8.232864, "relative_strength": -3.955742, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": 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17.5229, "activity_lines": [ 6.195333, 6.128636, 6.043143, 6.101591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 5.82, "volume": 46083, "typical_volume": 40750.25, "trend": 6.234667, "fair_value": 6.295931, "relative_strength": -22.685654, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.471605, "energy": 13.530868, "activity_lines": [ 6.078, 6.079273, 6.027524, 6.072903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.13, "volume": 61760, "typical_volume": 42396.1, "trend": 6.198333, "fair_value": 6.290547, "relative_strength": -14.156687, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.866581, "energy": 9.863679, "activity_lines": [ 6.052667, 6.089364, 6.041429, 6.066151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.13, "volume": 18610, "typical_volume": 41936.25, "trend": 6.17, "fair_value": 6.288271, "relative_strength": -12.419825, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.216985, "energy": 14.801886, "activity_lines": [ 6.052, 6.097455, 6.0545, 6.061742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.36, "volume": 69188, "typical_volume": 43021.1, "trend": 6.126667, "fair_value": 6.282566, "relative_strength": -23.35361, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.817407, "energy": 31.900585, "activity_lines": [ 5.807333, 5.966818, 5.993, 6.009484 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.19, "volume": 56801, "typical_volume": 43384.55, "trend": 6.073667, "fair_value": 6.273399, "relative_strength": -28.84009, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.645445, "energy": 50.21205, "activity_lines": [ 5.590667, 5.817091, 5.918833, 5.949054 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }