{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e5764ae3-e038-4ae1-99d7-94e2edbac5b2", "symbol": "600319", "name": "Weifang Yaxing Chemical Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.656, "architecture_energy": 71.762, "architecture_maturity": 52.213, "architecture_confidence": 87.462, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.41, "rotation_up": 13.63, "upward_expansion": 15.12, "deceleration": 42.84, "rotation_down": 73.18, "downward_expansion": 90.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.686667, 5.933818, 6.551, 6.931032 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 6.09, "trend_reference": 7.405667, "distance_from_trend": -0.177657, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.82609, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.045298, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.051243, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.242537, "excess_performance": -0.199333, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.177657, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.117427, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.045298, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.421968, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.220512, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.212169, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.242537, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.342927, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 27200566, "relative_activity": 1.317731, "balance": 0.342927, "dry_up": 1.428708, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.101554, "annualized_volatility": 0.425527, "from_high_reference": -0.486076, "from_low_reference": 0.250513 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.405667, "fair_value_reference": 5.82609, "structural_low": 4.87, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.015576, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.035888, "regime_survival": 0.761905, "best_return": 0.291793, "worst_return": -0.186321, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.00104, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.044958, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.672131, "worst_return": -0.246914, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.061228, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.122117, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.632787, "worst_return": -0.241294, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-02-02", "end": "2024-02-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.180905, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.012438, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.115294, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.101563, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.170626, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.374194, "energy": 86.375454, "activity_lines": [ 6.353333, 6.750727, 7.193524, 7.47486 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.6, "volume": 26882302, "typical_volume": 27085199.1, "trend": 7.777667, "fair_value": 5.817372, "relative_strength": -25.979588, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.504873, "energy": 89.920867, "activity_lines": [ 6.052667, 6.471636, 7.010381, 7.327011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.17, "volume": 35712639, "typical_volume": 26842314.5, "trend": 7.638, "fair_value": 5.817949, "relative_strength": -32.213222, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -86.596076, "energy": 91.738447, "activity_lines": [ 5.706667, 6.164727, 6.799762, 7.158774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.53, "volume": 28169899, "typical_volume": 22262525.2, "trend": 7.512, "fair_value": 5.820064, "relative_strength": -27.484678, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.637339, "energy": 85.671896, "activity_lines": [ 5.576667, 5.977636, 6.641, 7.022774 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.09, "volume": 27200566, "typical_volume": 20641971.0, "trend": 7.405667, "fair_value": 5.82609, "relative_strength": -22.051243, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.655605, "energy": 71.762271, "activity_lines": [ 5.686667, 5.933818, 6.551, 6.931032 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }