{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e57854e9-e603-49ef-a76e-fedd263a07c9", "symbol": "NAGREEKCAP", "name": "Nagreeka Capital & Infrastructure Ltd.", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -71.615, "architecture_energy": 80.079, "architecture_maturity": 18.012, "architecture_confidence": 86.516, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.8, "rotation_up": 9.65, "upward_expansion": 18.75, "deceleration": 37.07, "rotation_down": 77.28, "downward_expansion": 94.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.917333, 23.828363, 25.727619, 26.055979 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 22.459999, "trend_reference": 26.428333, "distance_from_trend": -0.150155, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 25.533333, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.120366, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.273687, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.152133, "excess_performance": -0.108424, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.150155, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039435, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.120366, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.316532, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.172737, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.2913, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.152133, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.368727, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 37895, "relative_activity": 0.349933, "balance": 0.368727, "dry_up": 0.238542, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.085006, "annualized_volatility": 0.534565, "from_high_reference": -0.47462, "from_low_reference": 0.163731 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.428333, "fair_value_reference": 25.533333, "structural_low": 19.299999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.097058, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.07859, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.631193, "worst_return": -0.200787, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.062942, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.018112, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.13945, "worst_return": -0.003215, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.263071, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.149422, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.335957, "worst_return": 0.190184, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.170315, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.189312, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.054157, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.25174, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.021787, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-20", 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"close": 23.08, "volume": 11656, "typical_volume": 110912.75, "trend": 26.890333, "fair_value": 25.441154, "relative_strength": -14.711903, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.147844, "energy": 68.583242, "activity_lines": [ 24.154, 25.549455, 26.810524, 26.813441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.67, "volume": 37314, "typical_volume": 108751.3, "trend": 26.734, "fair_value": 25.465321, "relative_strength": -14.104023, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.895155, "energy": 77.652209, "activity_lines": [ 23.448, 24.840909, 26.423905, 26.541161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.35, "volume": 16464, "typical_volume": 107937.85, "trend": 26.596333, "fair_value": 25.501218, "relative_strength": -13.623939, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.259354, "energy": 76.235689, "activity_lines": [ 23.281333, 24.369455, 26.115381, 26.322839 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.459999, "volume": 37895, "typical_volume": 108292.2, "trend": 26.428333, "fair_value": 25.533333, "relative_strength": -17.273687, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.61455, "energy": 80.079004, "activity_lines": [ 22.917333, 23.828363, 25.727619, 26.055979 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }