{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e57af138-5191-464c-bc84-2b2aa6403b43", "symbol": "ERAM", "name": "ERAMET S.A.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.376, "architecture_energy": 58.89, "architecture_maturity": 30.08, "architecture_confidence": 88.641, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.96, "rotation_up": 18.55, "upward_expansion": 9.64, "deceleration": 51.21, "rotation_down": 63.8, "downward_expansion": 82.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 44.409333, 45.241091, 48.576333, 50.408559 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 47.98, "trend_reference": 54.678333, "distance_from_trend": -0.122504, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 53.306876, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.099929, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -29.084799, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.293893, "excess_performance": -0.468139, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.122504, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047659, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.099929, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.168895, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.290848, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.183184, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.293893, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.589364, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 21, "relative_activity": 0.083168, "balance": 0.589364, "dry_up": 1.862376, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.070751, "annualized_volatility": 0.597752, "from_high_reference": -0.45197, "from_low_reference": 0.166262 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 54.678333, "fair_value_reference": 53.306876, "structural_low": 41.139999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.010182, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.040163, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.152695, "worst_return": -0.19379, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.118962, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.234416, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.118962, "worst_return": -0.118962, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.616665, "energy": 92.022964, "activity_lines": [ 44.660667, 47.740182, 50.536238, 52.697441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 41.139999, "volume": 674, "typical_volume": 280.25, "trend": 56.026666, "fair_value": 53.468074, "relative_strength": -38.184425, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.358398, "energy": 92.500902, "activity_lines": [ 43.090667, 46.123818, 49.533809, 51.710753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 43.32, "volume": 836, "typical_volume": 293.15, "trend": 55.457333, "fair_value": 53.362365, "relative_strength": -34.440383, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.674667, "energy": 86.515448, "activity_lines": [ 42.908, 45.169454, 48.811905, 50.890968 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 47.98, "volume": 21, "typical_volume": 252.5, "trend": 54.678333, "fair_value": 53.306876, "relative_strength": -29.084799, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.375569, "energy": 58.889921, "activity_lines": [ 44.409333, 45.241091, 48.576333, 50.408559 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }