{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e5806a64-ef00-425f-a3f4-b64452fbe2ac", "symbol": "ZIM", "name": "Zimplats Holdings Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -44.073, "architecture_energy": 35.053, "architecture_maturity": 93.591, "architecture_confidence": 94.502, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.01, "rotation_up": 30.08, "upward_expansion": 19.75, "deceleration": 44.06, "rotation_down": 37.64, "downward_expansion": 67.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.17, 13.865273, 14.627476, 15.560452 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 15.59, "trend_reference": 17.15, "distance_from_trend": -0.090962, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.07384, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.086907, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.568209, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.2421, "excess_performance": -0.305806, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.090962, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.10065, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.086907, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00835, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.165682, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.085736, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.2421, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.566254, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 103289, "relative_activity": 1.452864, "balance": 0.566254, "dry_up": 0.864511, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.085755, "annualized_volatility": 0.416581, "from_high_reference": -0.391016, "from_low_reference": 0.261327 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.15, "fair_value_reference": 17.07384, "structural_low": 12.36, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.0301, "positive_rate": 0.36, "directional_follow_through": 0.64, "median_excess_return": -0.013151, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.538462, "worst_return": -0.157413, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.073313, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.092871, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.210526, "worst_return": -0.252394, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.121644, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.156782, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.051429, "worst_return": -0.166502, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.164423, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.060462, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.030837, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0625, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.154665, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.414706, 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"modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.918365, "energy": 86.90828, "activity_lines": [ 13.692667, 14.550182, 15.728095, 16.919957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 13.35, "volume": 43906, "typical_volume": 96449.9, "trend": 18.327333, "fair_value": 17.336886, "relative_strength": -25.650142, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.982736, "energy": 85.558776, "activity_lines": [ 13.442, 14.228727, 15.401476, 16.589011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.72, "volume": 43748, "typical_volume": 85457.85, "trend": 18.071333, "fair_value": 17.262641, "relative_strength": -28.805785, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.887985, "energy": 85.328432, "activity_lines": [ 13.135333, 13.842727, 15.045, 16.227247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.27, "volume": 48002, "typical_volume": 77161.1, "trend": 17.712, "fair_value": 17.189145, "relative_strength": -25.242376, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.91999, "energy": 62.514752, "activity_lines": [ 13.144, 13.623636, 14.779857, 15.917484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.0, "volume": 50805, "typical_volume": 73478.0, "trend": 17.412, "fair_value": 17.124856, "relative_strength": -22.757019, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.114587, "energy": 56.37054, "activity_lines": [ 13.432, 13.578182, 14.617714, 15.678 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.59, "volume": 103289, "typical_volume": 71093.35, "trend": 17.15, "fair_value": 17.07384, "relative_strength": -16.568209, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.072933, "energy": 35.052969, "activity_lines": [ 14.17, 13.865273, 14.627476, 15.560452 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }