{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e588c7ef-9443-4444-9957-aaad1fa60248", "symbol": "MONC", "name": "Moncler S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 75.618, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -27.276, "architecture_energy": 35.752, "architecture_maturity": 49.046, "architecture_confidence": 59.383, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.75, "rotation_up": 21.0, "upward_expansion": 14.53, "deceleration": 46.87, "rotation_down": 56.97, "downward_expansion": 56.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 49.601332, 50.289454, 51.204281, 51.416582 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 50.66, "trend_reference": 51.330892, "distance_from_trend": -0.01307, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 52.564923, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.036239, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.472391, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.077918, "excess_performance": -0.092974, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.01307, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022081, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.036239, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031015, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.154724, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.069014, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.077918, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.950771, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5249215, "relative_activity": 1.244343, "balance": 0.950771, "dry_up": 1.705323, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.068243, "annualized_volatility": 0.361631, "from_high_reference": -0.122423, "from_low_reference": 0.146681 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 51.330892, "fair_value_reference": 52.564923, "structural_low": 46.580002, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.009659, "positive_rate": 0.631579, "directional_follow_through": 0.631579, "median_excess_return": 0.001369, "regime_survival": 0.631579, "best_return": 0.146125, "worst_return": -0.142026, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.028247, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.026152, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.294558, "worst_return": -0.18243, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.069177, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.028489, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.191886, "worst_return": -0.166605, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.039384, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.102483, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.322729, "worst_return": -0.159672, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.09771, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.012068, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.102107, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.038286, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.006932, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.056775, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.13113, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.04229, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.047451, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", 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"trend": 51.537382, "fair_value": 52.679646, "relative_strength": -17.556648, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.428789, "energy": 42.630264, "activity_lines": [ 49.711999, 51.018181, 51.548667, 51.632892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 48.919998, "volume": 5615336, "typical_volume": 4186691.95, "trend": 51.395418, "fair_value": 52.620058, "relative_strength": -16.1809, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.741106, "energy": 46.103248, "activity_lines": [ 49.286665, 50.471999, 51.288475, 51.464029 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 50.66, "volume": 5249215, "typical_volume": 4218463.25, "trend": 51.330892, "fair_value": 52.564923, "relative_strength": -15.472391, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.276098, "energy": 35.751626, "activity_lines": [ 49.601332, 50.289454, 51.204281, 51.416582 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }