{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e59a8887-49eb-461d-bb25-15dbaab0b7ad", "symbol": "ASMLN", "name": "ASML Holding N.V.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 38.038, "architecture_energy": 24.898, "architecture_maturity": 65.187, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.87, "rotation_up": 23.97, "upward_expansion": 57.8, "deceleration": 91.16, "rotation_down": 28.47, "downward_expansion": 21.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 29967.404104, 30586.779387, 29652.11596, 28471.589729 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 29800.0, "trend_reference": 27033.344743, "distance_from_trend": 0.102342, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 17472.424101, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.705545, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 26.533478, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.23162, "excess_performance": 0.286287, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.102342, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.157652, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.705545, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020274, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.265335, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040376, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.23162, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.487139, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 956, "relative_activity": 1.999791, "balance": 2.487139, "dry_up": 1.145278, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.059827, "annualized_volatility": 0.334525, "from_high_reference": -0.102815, "from_low_reference": 1.214537 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27033.344743, "fair_value_reference": 17472.424101, "structural_low": 22863.589844, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.051352, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": 0.038642, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.297554, "worst_return": -0.12321, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.043648, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.060856, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.338974, "worst_return": -0.186565, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.115646, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.064889, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.054049, "worst_return": -0.243487, "sufficient": 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.344951, "energy": 54.685201, "activity_lines": [ 31141.297498, 31097.431074, 29416.968876, 28144.141667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28616.529297, "volume": 978, "typical_volume": 442.25, "trend": 26802.544678, "fair_value": 17356.745721, "relative_strength": 22.949299, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.43163, "energy": 34.385289, "activity_lines": [ 30263.326372, 30735.611072, 29488.485875, 28278.205514 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 29800.0, "volume": 956, "typical_volume": 478.05, "trend": 27033.344743, "fair_value": 17472.424101, "relative_strength": 26.533478, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.037759, "energy": 24.897938, "activity_lines": [ 29967.404104, 30586.779387, 29652.11596, 28471.589729 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }