{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e5a1f1bc-3d91-4ed6-b8bb-d0035b62d4d9", "symbol": "6108", "name": "APCB Inc.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 59.479, "architecture_energy": 37.104, "architecture_maturity": 38.0, "architecture_confidence": 70.261, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.24, "rotation_up": 53.48, "upward_expansion": 67.36, "deceleration": 52.74, "rotation_down": 20.28, "downward_expansion": 17.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.083333, 18.586364, 18.758095, 18.364301 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 22.1, "trend_reference": 17.605, "distance_from_trend": 0.255325, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.628119, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.329074, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.920067, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.54007, "excess_performance": 0.098698, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.255325, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.095065, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.329074, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.193097, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.009201, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.138312, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.54007, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.777476, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12283363, "relative_activity": 1.621031, "balance": 1.777476, "dry_up": 0.79101, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.076053, "annualized_volatility": 0.509137, "from_high_reference": -0.086777, "from_low_reference": 0.753968 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.605, "fair_value_reference": 16.628119, "structural_low": 14.05, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.05582, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.021355, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.339394, "worst_return": -0.147287, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.148515, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.10413, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.213514, "worst_return": 0.08418, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.151645, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.104612, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.315667, "worst_return": -0.012376, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"red", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.143803, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.188235, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.091549, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.065068, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.080537, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.062963, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.128906, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.052448, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.220065, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-08-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.142119, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-11", "close": 15.624808, "volume": 688193, "typical_volume": 510541.85, "trend": 15.423007, "fair_value": 16.42577, "relative_strength": -4.912874, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.164171, "energy": 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"close": 16.5, "volume": 4523226, "typical_volume": 6976101.7, "trend": 17.04, "fair_value": 16.552047, "relative_strength": -22.431822, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -3.466871, "energy": 11.163679, "activity_lines": [ 17.97, 18.498182, 18.624286, 17.990753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.85, "volume": 3561237, "typical_volume": 7036484.3, "trend": 17.125, "fair_value": 16.55933, "relative_strength": -22.058208, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -0.914702, "energy": 14.214845, "activity_lines": [ 17.48, 18.143636, 18.497619, 17.978495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.65, "volume": 4623318, "typical_volume": 7048069.95, "trend": 17.198333, "fair_value": 16.565617, "relative_strength": -21.488243, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.964552, "energy": 31.697178, "activity_lines": [ 17.09, 17.784545, 18.345952, 17.94785 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.9, "volume": 3507609, "typical_volume": 7025301.9, "trend": 17.346667, "fair_value": 16.586326, "relative_strength": -12.63619, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.560198, "energy": 22.967109, "activity_lines": [ 17.55, 17.885455, 18.404286, 18.057634 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 22.1, "volume": 12283363, "typical_volume": 7577499.9, "trend": 17.605, "fair_value": 16.628119, "relative_strength": -0.920067, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.479281, "energy": 37.104463, "activity_lines": [ 19.083333, 18.586364, 18.758095, 18.364301 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }