{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e5a654ba-ff18-43a7-b272-e35b879e5315", "symbol": "PLEJD", "name": "Plejd AB", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 63.164, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -33.766, "architecture_energy": 68.704, "architecture_maturity": 9.088, "architecture_confidence": 84.841, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.41, "rotation_up": 16.68, "upward_expansion": 32.78, "deceleration": 46.68, "rotation_down": 75.94, "downward_expansion": 60.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 870.466667, 940.245455, 991.807143, 973.158065 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 857.0, "trend_reference": 940.316667, "distance_from_trend": -0.088605, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 527.539103, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.624524, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.666033, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.020571, "excess_performance": -0.082066, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.088605, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.093688, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.624524, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.703344, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.14666, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.315329, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.020571, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.120813, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 112033, "relative_activity": 0.972227, "balance": 0.120813, "dry_up": 1.265859, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.081994, "annualized_volatility": 0.491143, "from_high_reference": -0.254783, "from_low_reference": 0.251095 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 940.316667, "fair_value_reference": 527.539103, "structural_low": 726.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.22085, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.163099, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.24247, "worst_return": -0.034437, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.193249, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.079359, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.27259, "worst_return": 0.113907, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.180593, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.141947, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.430464, "worst_return": -0.069277, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"date": "2026-07-17", "close": 899.0, "volume": 164387, "typical_volume": 103079.45, "trend": 926.3, "fair_value": 514.334616, "relative_strength": -7.713836, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 1.111122, "energy": 18.011473, "activity_lines": [ 992.0, 1036.872727, 1027.533333, 986.784946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 865.0, "volume": 185217, "typical_volume": 109410.6, "trend": 930.833333, "fair_value": 518.778205, "relative_strength": -12.169064, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -18.648988, "energy": 34.933175, "activity_lines": [ 936.2, 1001.872727, 1016.295238, 982.830108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 859.5, "volume": 121840, "typical_volume": 111651.8, "trend": 935.583333, "fair_value": 523.173718, "relative_strength": -13.342127, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.079089, "energy": 49.667008, "activity_lines": [ 896.9, 969.236364, 1004.271429, 978.227957 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 857.0, "volume": 112033, "typical_volume": 115233.4, "trend": 940.316667, "fair_value": 527.539103, "relative_strength": -14.666033, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.765796, "energy": 68.703886, "activity_lines": [ 870.466667, 940.245455, 991.807143, 973.158065 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }