{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e5abb7f8-fa29-4aef-8f93-37f7f53ecd6b", "symbol": "NVDA", "name": "NVIDIA Corporation", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 92.335, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 52.884, "architecture_energy": 30.731, "architecture_maturity": 25.099, "architecture_confidence": 77.52, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.63, "rotation_up": 49.76, "upward_expansion": 68.02, "deceleration": 53.04, "rotation_down": 21.93, "downward_expansion": 13.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 3639.792041, 3591.261484, 3594.517463, 3522.06613 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 3818.550049, "trend_reference": 3428.584741, "distance_from_trend": 0.113739, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2446.953983, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.560532, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 9.971376, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.188831, "excess_performance": 0.243498, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.113739, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022639, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.560532, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.117879, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.099714, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.064537, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.188831, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.855864, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 193212, "relative_activity": 1.630855, "balance": 0.855864, "dry_up": 1.244895, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.061779, "annualized_volatility": 0.310132, "from_high_reference": -0.062179, "from_low_reference": 0.281818 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3428.584741, "fair_value_reference": 2446.953983, "structural_low": 2979.80052, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.040474, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": 0.016078, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.403187, "worst_return": -0.219079, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.003174, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.042033, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.388564, "worst_return": -0.194669, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.06911, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.031889, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.891261, "worst_return": -0.043612, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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2446.953983, "relative_strength": 9.971376, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.883849, "energy": 30.731404, "activity_lines": [ 3639.792041, 3591.261484, 3594.517463, 3522.06613 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }