{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e5af08b9-e220-4e73-a9f6-26e3f6baa438", "symbol": "KGCN", "name": "Kinross Gold Corporation", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -73.075, "architecture_energy": 90.486, "architecture_maturity": 31.157, "architecture_confidence": 86.147, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 6.75, "rotation_up": 12.79, "upward_expansion": 22.0, "deceleration": 37.0, "rotation_down": 80.68, "downward_expansion": 100.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 414.8, 428.654545, 466.854768, 491.708848 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 413.0, "trend_reference": 525.757493, "distance_from_trend": -0.214467, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 269.641809, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.531662, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.565848, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.2715, "excess_performance": -0.216833, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.214467, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029992, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.531662, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.708577, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.175658, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.2538, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.2715, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.966667, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.966667, "dry_up": 0.125313, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.034837, "annualized_volatility": 0.540194, "from_high_reference": -0.392559, "from_low_reference": 0.305386 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 525.757493, "fair_value_reference": 269.641809, "structural_low": 413.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.012536, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": 0.0, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.368209, "energy": 92.065559, "activity_lines": [ 448.0, 472.943276, 504.726862, 523.052182 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 413.0, "volume": 20, "typical_volume": 95.15, "trend": 536.183337, "fair_value": 262.998172, "relative_strength": -16.718757, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -88.174976, "energy": 95.72394, "activity_lines": [ 431.866667, 458.653819, 493.924887, 514.885675 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 413.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 85.45, "trend": 532.785822, "fair_value": 265.212718, "relative_strength": -16.590877, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.30446, "energy": 93.303221, "activity_lines": [ 422.0, 446.490909, 484.127245, 506.938363 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 413.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 43.3, "trend": 529.271657, "fair_value": 267.427263, "relative_strength": -17.410698, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.924674, "energy": 91.517966, "activity_lines": [ 418.4, 436.490909, 475.110157, 499.210246 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 413.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 39.9, "trend": 525.757493, "fair_value": 269.641809, "relative_strength": -17.565848, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.074851, "energy": 90.486115, "activity_lines": [ 414.8, 428.654545, 466.854768, 491.708848 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }