{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e5b27363-4ebe-46d2-b1d2-9f2350a50ec3", "symbol": "BTECJ", "name": "Fineco AM MarketVector Bioproduction Tech and Tools Sustainable UCITS ETF J Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 67.748, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 72.453, "architecture_energy": 90.07, "architecture_maturity": 16.79, "architecture_confidence": 65.179, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The prior uptrend is attempting to re-accelerate.", "body": "Positive Trend survived a recompression and Fast Activity is strengthening again. Promotion requires renewed confirmation across the completed evidence set." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.1, "rotation_up": 82.49, "upward_expansion": 97.67, "deceleration": 41.83, "rotation_down": 8.0, "downward_expansion": 22.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 12217.488086, 11790.768998, 11445.621838, 11352.776187 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 12266.620117, "trend_reference": 11306.949512, "distance_from_trend": 0.084874, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11239.486985, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.091386, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.668246, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.098109, "excess_performance": -0.072783, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.084874, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014345, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.091386, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.096208, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.036682, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022153, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.098109, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.83871, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.83871, "dry_up": 1.929825, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.024543, "annualized_volatility": 0.205929, "from_high_reference": -0.004496, "from_low_reference": 0.290275 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11306.949512, "fair_value_reference": 11239.486985, "structural_low": 10010.269531, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.012194, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.00877, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.012194, "worst_return": 0.012194, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.08249, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.05286, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003786, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.009061, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.012194, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-06-14", "close": 12010.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-06-21", "close": 12010.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-06-28", "close": 12010.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, 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"energy": 65.267458, "activity_lines": [ 11853.545378, 11418.404599, 11243.722549, 11223.966518 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12266.620117, "volume": 8, "typical_volume": 2.85, "trend": 11291.199512, "fair_value": 11230.316154, "relative_strength": -0.81778, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 53.791173, "energy": 81.397892, "activity_lines": [ 12087.430729, 11614.549893, 11347.281576, 11289.845825 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12266.620117, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2.85, "trend": 11306.949512, "fair_value": 11239.486985, "relative_strength": -3.668246, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.452514, "energy": 90.069916, "activity_lines": [ 12217.488086, 11790.768998, 11445.621838, 11352.776187 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }