{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e5b51018-4656-4351-b2d4-120ad47c3a4c", "symbol": "3685", "name": "Tradetool Auto Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 55.922, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 33.322, "architecture_energy": 58.865, "architecture_maturity": 16.07, "architecture_confidence": 50.655, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.44, "rotation_up": 64.08, "upward_expansion": 58.2, "deceleration": 27.02, "rotation_down": 17.01, "downward_expansion": 21.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 38.18, 35.930909, 33.369047, 32.754946 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 37.0, "trend_reference": 32.863333, "distance_from_trend": 0.125875, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 23.041346, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.605809, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -21.366262, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.026316, "excess_performance": -0.467688, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.125875, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.049872, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.605809, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.365046, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.213663, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.099804, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.026316, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.143935, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3261841, "relative_activity": 0.910377, "balance": 2.143935, "dry_up": 1.82444, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.129314, "annualized_volatility": 0.683646, "from_high_reference": -0.20686, "from_low_reference": 2.348416 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.863333, "fair_value_reference": 23.041346, "structural_low": 25.299999, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.010093, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.023142, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.764706, "worst_return": -0.180142, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.058036, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.117872, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.201238, "worst_return": -0.384397, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.208333, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.190774, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.272446, "worst_return": -0.398582, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.388489, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.047509, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.179954, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.054794, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.071084, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-03-13", 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10887219, "typical_volume": 3065433.6, "trend": 33.141667, "fair_value": 22.751923, "relative_strength": -6.645109, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 42.292693, "energy": 57.042966, "activity_lines": [ 35.603333, 32.975454, 31.518571, 31.854409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 36.349998, "volume": 6320380, "typical_volume": 3311502.05, "trend": 32.97, "fair_value": 22.840385, "relative_strength": -16.777513, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 19.789089, "energy": 51.321932, "activity_lines": [ 36.613332, 33.86909, 32.037381, 32.061398 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 39.650002, "volume": 5678106, "typical_volume": 3497957.25, "trend": 32.93, "fair_value": 22.948397, "relative_strength": -12.190561, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 40.546146, "energy": 65.146058, "activity_lines": [ 38.233333, 35.247273, 32.848809, 32.492366 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 37.0, "volume": 3261841, "typical_volume": 3582955.15, "trend": 32.863333, "fair_value": 23.041346, "relative_strength": -21.366262, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 33.321919, "energy": 58.865074, "activity_lines": [ 38.18, 35.930909, 33.369047, 32.754946 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }