{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e5b811f0-c8d3-4428-85b0-188a4fe0f0af", "symbol": "KOSS", "name": "Koss Corporation", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.231, "architecture_energy": 59.184, "architecture_maturity": 82.367, "architecture_confidence": 91.057, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.79, "rotation_up": 11.57, "upward_expansion": 12.58, "deceleration": 37.93, "rotation_down": 70.3, "downward_expansion": 90.58 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.741333, 3.824, 3.914905, 3.950946 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 3.72, "trend_reference": 4.041667, "distance_from_trend": -0.079588, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.878747, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.237509, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.147757, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.205128, "excess_performance": -0.392582, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.079588, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055612, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.237509, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.091567, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.281478, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011919, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.205128, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.429811, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 94882, "relative_activity": 0.85453, "balance": 0.429811, "dry_up": 0.800042, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.075025, "annualized_volatility": 0.277013, "from_high_reference": -0.463203, "from_low_reference": 0.062857 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.041667, "fair_value_reference": 4.878747, "structural_low": 3.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 44, "median_return": -0.043723, "positive_rate": 0.295455, "directional_follow_through": 0.704545, "median_excess_return": -0.059256, "regime_survival": 0.909091, "best_return": 0.42598, "worst_return": -0.224466, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.122342, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.151394, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.729242, "worst_return": -0.422274, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.166369, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.362158, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 2.444444, "worst_return": -0.578442, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.398723, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.382978, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.808362, "worst_return": -0.590858, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2022-11-11", "end": "2023-12-22", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.424615, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-12-29", "end": "2024-01-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.095522, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-01-19", "end": "2024-02-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.04698, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-02-16", "end": "2024-05-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.15444, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-05-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.045929, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.606383, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.126761, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.176309, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.006623, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Established", 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"close": 3.8, "volume": 108160, "typical_volume": 116287.35, "trend": 4.11, "fair_value": 4.884324, "relative_strength": -26.281652, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.199767, "energy": 30.235768, "activity_lines": [ 3.914667, 3.944182, 3.98319, 4.022473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.75, "volume": 78028, "typical_volume": 116952.0, "trend": 4.085333, "fair_value": 4.882785, "relative_strength": -25.237217, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.677354, "energy": 43.962534, "activity_lines": [ 3.848667, 3.907091, 3.962095, 3.999247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.68, "volume": 74258, "typical_volume": 114560.85, "trend": 4.063333, "fair_value": 4.879837, "relative_strength": -26.17811, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.749012, "energy": 55.09676, "activity_lines": [ 3.778, 3.859273, 3.936048, 3.973097 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.72, "volume": 94882, "typical_volume": 111034.15, "trend": 4.041667, "fair_value": 4.878747, "relative_strength": -28.147757, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.230669, "energy": 59.184369, "activity_lines": [ 3.741333, 3.824, 3.914905, 3.950946 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }