{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e5b8b765-aa50-4d8e-a6be-54d94c2347a1", "symbol": "EX44", "name": "iShares Diversified Commodity Swap UCITS ETF (DE)", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 52.438, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Re-acceleration watch", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 42.196, "architecture_energy": 38.337, "architecture_maturity": 34.734, "architecture_confidence": 44.092, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The prior uptrend is attempting to re-accelerate.", "body": "Positive Trend survived a recompression and Fast Activity is strengthening again. Promotion requires renewed confirmation across the completed evidence set." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.02, "rotation_up": 66.13, "upward_expansion": 68.17, "deceleration": 63.91, "rotation_down": 9.29, "downward_expansion": 11.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 33.604667, 33.071909, 33.23281, 33.051591 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 33.380001, "trend_reference": 32.355, "distance_from_trend": 0.03168, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 26.852917, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.243068, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.873282, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.152823, "excess_performance": -0.021423, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.03168, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.063883, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.243068, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.062499, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.078733, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.124373, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.152823, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.0, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.0, "dry_up": 0.0, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.028518, "annualized_volatility": 0.218308, "from_high_reference": -0.064331, "from_low_reference": 0.376211 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.355, "fair_value_reference": 26.852917, "structural_low": 28.065001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, 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33.507363, 33.355809, 32.43529 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 31.42, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.15, "trend": 31.144167, "fair_value": 26.536346, "relative_strength": -10.763895, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -8.339866, "energy": 24.559869, "activity_lines": [ 32.278, 33.101727, 33.237024, 32.462086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 31.495001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.15, "trend": 31.273167, "fair_value": 26.582404, "relative_strength": -12.467375, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -10.23249, "energy": 31.653791, "activity_lines": [ 31.884, 32.723182, 33.113643, 32.48472 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 32.419998, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.15, "trend": 31.465, "fair_value": 26.634551, "relative_strength": -8.568733, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -2.744205, "energy": 27.721756, "activity_lines": [ 31.946, 32.553454, 33.064119, 32.558709 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 33.400002, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.15, "trend": 31.690167, "fair_value": 26.688846, "relative_strength": -3.875754, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.363377, "energy": 20.128338, "activity_lines": [ 32.411, 32.603909, 33.093071, 32.683548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 34.549999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.15, "trend": 31.942, "fair_value": 26.747147, "relative_strength": -1.927319, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.361088, "energy": 29.72825, "activity_lines": [ 33.201333, 32.876636, 33.213833, 32.868054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 33.575001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.15, "trend": 32.168167, "fair_value": 26.801058, "relative_strength": -4.604923, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.301967, "energy": 34.986501, "activity_lines": [ 33.507334, 32.981455, 33.231738, 32.973409 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 33.380001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.15, "trend": 32.355, "fair_value": 26.852917, "relative_strength": -7.873282, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Re-acceleration watch", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.195689, "energy": 38.337285, "activity_lines": [ 33.604667, 33.071909, 33.23281, 33.051591 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }