{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e5c9de27-57d6-491f-a2d8-971987ab900a", "symbol": "TEMP", "name": "JPMorgan ETFs (Ireland) ICAV - Climate Change Solutions Active UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 73.184, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 52.863, "architecture_energy": 33.692, "architecture_maturity": 61.858, "architecture_confidence": 76.754, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.53, "rotation_up": 36.79, "upward_expansion": 62.29, "deceleration": 85.47, "rotation_down": 27.66, "downward_expansion": 21.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 40.300333, 40.435091, 40.124548, 39.430699 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 40.779999, "trend_reference": 38.445333, "distance_from_trend": 0.060727, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 31.463365, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.296111, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.539188, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.136091, "excess_performance": -0.0348, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.060727, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.067615, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.296111, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01768, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.025392, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.067377, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.136091, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.669672, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3673, "relative_activity": 1.851497, "balance": 0.669672, "dry_up": 2.002722, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.021362, "annualized_volatility": 0.14859, "from_high_reference": -0.01652, "from_low_reference": 0.316546 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 38.445333, "fair_value_reference": 31.463365, "structural_low": 35.154999, "invalidation": "A 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"color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.00064, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.035626, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.050299, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.034335, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.004408, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 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40.404333, 40.025545, 38.971691, 38.097312 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 40.82, "volume": 1062, "typical_volume": 1659.25, "trend": 37.037, "fair_value": 30.932692, "relative_strength": 2.138504, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.346243, "energy": 67.166711, "activity_lines": [ 40.615666, 40.241454, 39.219762, 38.358011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 41.075001, "volume": 160, "typical_volume": 1565.8, "trend": 37.286667, "fair_value": 31.024808, "relative_strength": -0.248327, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.732659, "energy": 75.542295, "activity_lines": [ 40.82, 40.447091, 39.468667, 38.618527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 40.505001, "volume": 2457, "typical_volume": 1633.25, "trend": 37.528167, "fair_value": 31.11343, "relative_strength": -1.24045, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.82484, "energy": 66.410906, "activity_lines": [ 40.775334, 40.511273, 39.646572, 38.826161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 39.959999, "volume": 8433, "typical_volume": 2036.4, "trend": 37.7705, "fair_value": 31.198462, "relative_strength": -1.172781, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.346878, "energy": 54.293774, "activity_lines": [ 40.523667, 40.454909, 39.759857, 38.983054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 40.540001, "volume": 1985, "typical_volume": 2096.75, "trend": 38.018667, "fair_value": 31.283365, "relative_strength": 0.398427, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.990629, "energy": 47.49286, "activity_lines": [ 40.468334, 40.501636, 39.918572, 39.161731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 39.639999, "volume": 1801, "typical_volume": 2179.05, "trend": 38.232333, "fair_value": 31.369295, "relative_strength": -2.46937, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.376086, "energy": 30.4708, "activity_lines": [ 40.155, 40.366545, 39.974405, 39.266333 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 40.779999, "volume": 3673, "typical_volume": 1983.8, "trend": 38.445333, "fair_value": 31.463365, "relative_strength": -2.539188, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.863345, "energy": 33.69157, "activity_lines": [ 40.300333, 40.435091, 40.124548, 39.430699 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }