{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e5d35d06-25dc-42d7-9d3d-c3459ca95e18", "symbol": "MAB1", "name": "Mortgage Advice Bureau (Holdings) plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 95.64, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -44.549, "architecture_energy": 21.496, "architecture_maturity": 66.223, "architecture_confidence": 85.921, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.25, "rotation_up": 24.2, "upward_expansion": 10.74, "deceleration": 37.47, "rotation_down": 36.9, "downward_expansion": 63.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 533.6, 533.727273, 534.540223, 546.886466 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 546.0, "trend_reference": 578.821067, "distance_from_trend": -0.056703, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 715.430292, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.236823, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -20.461438, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.255932, "excess_performance": -0.307167, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.056703, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.082052, "read": "Falling" 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496.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.46875, "directional_follow_through": 0.46875, "median_excess_return": -0.017947, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.336478, "worst_return": -0.330526, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.034503, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.107954, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.184127, "worst_return": -0.326156, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.204921, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.209819, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.417595, "worst_return": -0.324051, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"down", "direction": -54.005266, "energy": 28.167308, "activity_lines": [ 531.6, 533.581818, 535.432411, 553.754651 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 521.0, "volume": 1152114, "typical_volume": 1699572.15, "trend": 584.148116, "fair_value": 715.784805, "relative_strength": -24.802288, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.408194, "energy": 28.525496, "activity_lines": [ 528.666667, 531.345455, 533.750946, 549.347634 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 546.0, "volume": 498887, "typical_volume": 1550878.15, "trend": 578.821067, "fair_value": 715.430292, "relative_strength": -20.461438, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.548615, "energy": 21.495793, "activity_lines": [ 533.6, 533.727273, 534.540223, 546.886466 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }