{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e5dc0584-73da-4108-946e-b6550c1cd8f6", "symbol": "EMXC", "name": "Amundi MSCI Emerging Ex China UCITS ETF Acc", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 24.108, "architecture_energy": 26.215, "architecture_maturity": 66.29, "architecture_confidence": 90.339, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.87, "rotation_up": 20.53, "upward_expansion": 54.99, "deceleration": 91.16, "rotation_down": 39.94, "downward_expansion": 20.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 39.122334, 40.155182, 39.952619, 38.670151 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 39.365002, "trend_reference": 36.9235, "distance_from_trend": 0.066123, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.062226, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.454611, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 9.527127, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.191254, "excess_performance": 0.126615, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.066123, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.115109, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.454611, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.105139, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.095271, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.236319, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.191254, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.855161, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 432613, "relative_activity": 1.313449, "balance": 0.855161, "dry_up": 1.410301, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.056346, "annualized_volatility": 0.27169, "from_high_reference": -0.106762, "from_low_reference": 0.55133 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 36.9235, "fair_value_reference": 27.062226, "structural_low": 31.184999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.021824, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.002291, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.135816, "worst_return": -0.025598, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.066156, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.043893, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.31165, "worst_return": 0.011609, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.098834, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.065872, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.431854, "worst_return": 0.035555, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.034558, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.000847, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.192845, "worst_return": 0.017642, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-11-03", "end": "2023-11-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003805, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-11-17", "end": "2023-12-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.021993, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-12-08", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.111796, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.042666, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.017812, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.053679, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.032735, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.026632, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.108113, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.047331, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.007943, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.127936, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.048374, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.005107, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 20.65, "volume": 110835, "typical_volume": 74147.05, "trend": 20.614467, "fair_value": 20.853128, "relative_strength": -5.134231, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 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"2026-07-10", "close": 41.445, "volume": 265924, "typical_volume": 345269.7, "trend": 35.733834, "fair_value": 26.612098, "relative_strength": 24.268675, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.348094, "energy": 64.443376, "activity_lines": [ 42.227, 41.686182, 39.612524, 37.973473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 38.685001, "volume": 558936, "typical_volume": 344587.7, "trend": 36.057, "fair_value": 26.723444, "relative_strength": 16.270503, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.099602, "energy": 42.260528, "activity_lines": [ 41.019, 41.247909, 39.708238, 38.163871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 39.165001, "volume": 316902, "typical_volume": 329259.1, "trend": 36.390167, "fair_value": 26.834149, "relative_strength": 15.623321, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.373744, "energy": 26.112435, "activity_lines": [ 40.148667, 40.915364, 39.834857, 38.364388 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 38.424999, "volume": 549602, "typical_volume": 331803.3, "trend": 36.6605, "fair_value": 26.944278, "relative_strength": 10.450368, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.952783, "energy": 26.37462, "activity_lines": [ 39.345, 40.439, 39.862429, 38.495667 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 39.365002, "volume": 432613, "typical_volume": 329371.7, "trend": 36.9235, "fair_value": 27.062226, "relative_strength": 9.527127, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.108421, "energy": 26.215318, "activity_lines": [ 39.122334, 40.155182, 39.952619, 38.670151 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }