{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e5df2dd4-1d34-43f5-8206-3fd8be7bb298", "symbol": "COVH", "name": "Covivio Hotels", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 65.004, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 45.331, "architecture_energy": 24.469, "architecture_maturity": 10.795, "architecture_confidence": 60.453, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.49, "rotation_up": 45.96, "upward_expansion": 62.52, "deceleration": 53.52, "rotation_down": 22.44, "downward_expansion": 17.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.699999, 22.605454, 22.662963, 22.480456 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 23.0, "trend_reference": 22.22893, "distance_from_trend": 0.034688, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18.04362, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.274689, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.697809, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.052067, "excess_performance": -0.001244, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.034688, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01251, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.274689, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035869, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.036978, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051097, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.052067, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.985963, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2329, "relative_activity": 0.664366, "balance": 1.985963, "dry_up": 0.918245, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.025753, "annualized_volatility": 0.153607, "from_high_reference": -0.105359, "from_low_reference": 0.134868 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.22893, "fair_value_reference": 18.04362, "structural_low": 20.266666, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.006329, "positive_rate": 0.4375, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": -0.000417, "regime_survival": 0.4375, "best_return": 0.15016, "worst_return": -0.145963, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.007604, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.093098, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.204473, "worst_return": -0.072507, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.056396, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.056068, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.256667, "worst_return": -0.064706, "sufficient": true }, { 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.108108, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.022388, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.140665, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.20598, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.050633, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-04-17", 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"fair_value": 17.605523, "relative_strength": -0.795957, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.422582, "energy": 31.92016, "activity_lines": [ 22.846667, 22.843749, 22.46545, 22.236997 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 22.9, "volume": 56, "typical_volume": 3873.65, "trend": 22.051646, "fair_value": 17.661546, "relative_strength": -1.547274, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.930394, "energy": 34.492273, "activity_lines": [ 22.893333, 22.845455, 22.536784, 22.292146 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 22.5, "volume": 231, "typical_volume": 3792.65, "trend": 22.060411, "fair_value": 17.715779, "relative_strength": -2.790537, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.366925, "energy": 25.507632, "activity_lines": [ 22.773333, 22.770909, 22.564633, 22.321073 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 22.4, "volume": 144, "typical_volume": 3583.25, "trend": 22.078354, "fair_value": 17.769886, "relative_strength": -4.534423, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.924296, "energy": 17.371064, "activity_lines": [ 22.62, 22.694545, 22.579918, 22.342981 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 22.299999, "volume": 2085, "typical_volume": 3460.6, "trend": 22.08358, "fair_value": 17.823352, "relative_strength": -3.010226, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.676534, "energy": 16.509283, "activity_lines": [ 22.486666, 22.62, 22.582222, 22.357281 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 21.799999, "volume": 4401, "typical_volume": 3616.6, "trend": 22.100288, "fair_value": 17.873613, "relative_strength": -5.03976, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": -4.733614, "energy": 17.241241, "activity_lines": [ 22.219999, 22.463636, 22.53348, 22.338986 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.799999, "volume": 5469, "typical_volume": 3795.2, "trend": 22.128436, "fair_value": 17.929253, "relative_strength": -0.992984, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.307782, "energy": 16.957638, "activity_lines": [ 22.359999, 22.505454, 22.57893, 22.384128 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.799999, "volume": 677, "typical_volume": 3549.65, "trend": 22.178477, "fair_value": 17.985409, "relative_strength": -2.391606, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.784269, "energy": 13.571888, "activity_lines": [ 22.506666, 22.539999, 22.616337, 22.427455 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.0, "volume": 2329, "typical_volume": 3505.6, "trend": 22.22893, "fair_value": 18.04362, "relative_strength": -3.697809, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.330962, "energy": 24.468558, "activity_lines": [ 22.699999, 22.605454, 22.662963, 22.480456 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }