{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e5e3566d-7f41-455e-8db2-7546e367f24f", "symbol": "IXN", "name": "iShares Global Tech ETF", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 49.063, "architecture_energy": 30.109, "architecture_maturity": 72.626, "architecture_confidence": 88.493, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.9, "rotation_up": 29.2, "upward_expansion": 60.58, "deceleration": 88.33, "rotation_down": 29.05, "downward_expansion": 21.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 2341.814681, 2365.369713, 2331.361703, 2229.215709 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 2410.0, "trend_reference": 2104.203853, "distance_from_trend": 0.145326, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1616.538673, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.49084, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 17.606729, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.30455, "excess_performance": 0.359217, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.145326, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.081239, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.49084, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0165, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.176067, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.083805, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.30455, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.09685, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 351, "relative_activity": 0.061637, "balance": 0.09685, "dry_up": 1.020783, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.044596, "annualized_volatility": 0.300911, "from_high_reference": -0.046975, "from_low_reference": 0.382519 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2104.203853, "fair_value_reference": 1616.538673, "structural_low": 1770.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.01719, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.021838, "regime_survival": 0.4375, "best_return": 0.148242, "worst_return": -0.075287, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.094496, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.110174, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.163725, "worst_return": -0.090551, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.134589, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.190782, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.356614, "worst_return": -0.04141, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.104504, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.045114, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.016798, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.013974, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.035878, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-27", 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2276.110107, "volume": 21915, "typical_volume": 5685.6, "trend": 2063.203853, "fair_value": 1591.606569, "relative_strength": 12.373601, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.277329, "energy": 46.165811, "activity_lines": [ 2379.222705, 2401.3443, 2285.752738, 2179.050863 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2315.0, "volume": 644, "typical_volume": 5703.05, "trend": 2076.203853, "fair_value": 1599.73385, "relative_strength": 14.453899, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.895708, "energy": 34.361887, "activity_lines": [ 2347.429362, 2385.713232, 2301.107234, 2195.295776 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2280.0, "volume": 342, "typical_volume": 5677.45, "trend": 2088.037187, "fair_value": 1607.521493, "relative_strength": 11.620308, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.349304, "energy": 27.583089, "activity_lines": [ 2318.222021, 2363.076842, 2311.018873, 2208.443914 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2410.0, "volume": 351, "typical_volume": 5694.65, "trend": 2104.203853, "fair_value": 1616.538673, "relative_strength": 17.606729, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.062575, "energy": 30.109379, "activity_lines": [ 2341.814681, 2365.369713, 2331.361703, 2229.215709 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }