{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e5e7267c-fb92-436d-859c-8594406cd710", "symbol": "688210", "name": "Shenzhen Pacific Union Precision Manufacturing Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -68.092, "architecture_energy": 87.86, "architecture_maturity": 60.0, "architecture_confidence": 81.696, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.89, "rotation_up": 8.19, "upward_expansion": 21.91, "deceleration": 37.02, "rotation_down": 80.86, "downward_expansion": 97.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.526, 31.884909, 37.564714, 40.471613 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 28.27, "trend_reference": 44.693333, "distance_from_trend": -0.367467, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 29.801973, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.051405, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -40.308841, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.536557, "excess_performance": -0.493354, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.367467, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.12465, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.051405, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.722845, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.403088, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.399655, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.536557, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.1312, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 18079662, "relative_activity": 1.02274, "balance": 1.1312, "dry_up": 1.144945, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.177655, "annualized_volatility": 0.610538, "from_high_reference": -0.576796, "from_low_reference": 0.241001 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 44.693333, "fair_value_reference": 29.801973, "structural_low": 22.780001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.046611, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.049653, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.191896, "worst_return": -0.370968, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.001513, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.030164, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.959946, "worst_return": -0.008725, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 1.014411, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.871454, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.959024, "worst_return": 0.069798, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"volume": 16993221, "typical_volume": 17871009.2, "trend": 48.070666, "fair_value": 29.612793, "relative_strength": -25.284624, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.092051, "energy": 78.554026, "activity_lines": [ 39.368, 42.037636, 43.668047, 45.625763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 28.469999, "volume": 15728971, "typical_volume": 17362121.2, "trend": 47.311, "fair_value": 29.673624, "relative_strength": -37.718582, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -91.535355, "energy": 91.814187, "activity_lines": [ 35.326666, 39.21709, 42.096809, 44.361204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.290001, "volume": 24031144, "typical_volume": 17322372.75, "trend": 46.572666, "fair_value": 29.710518, "relative_strength": -45.364725, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -90.44611, "energy": 95.42487, "activity_lines": [ 31.156667, 36.154909, 40.372, 42.940494 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.629999, "volume": 23120047, "typical_volume": 17608904.2, "trend": 45.595, "fair_value": 29.74099, "relative_strength": -44.626384, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.532912, "energy": 93.105148, "activity_lines": [ 28.431333, 33.560182, 38.795952, 41.589354 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.27, "volume": 18079662, "typical_volume": 17677669.85, "trend": 44.693333, "fair_value": 29.801973, "relative_strength": -40.308841, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.091814, "energy": 87.85982, "activity_lines": [ 27.526, 31.884909, 37.564714, 40.471613 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }