{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e5f1d8b6-8368-487c-a660-bfa0167e8e7a", "symbol": "688262", "name": "C*Core Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.223, "architecture_energy": 75.14, "architecture_maturity": 20.662, "architecture_confidence": 82.188, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.49, "rotation_up": 13.4, "upward_expansion": 21.56, "deceleration": 31.68, "rotation_down": 72.63, "downward_expansion": 87.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.044, 31.212909, 34.051619, 34.938731 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 27.42, "trend_reference": 35.762667, "distance_from_trend": -0.233279, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.843398, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.015206, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.592317, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.24442, "excess_performance": -0.201216, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.233279, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036629, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.015206, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.437632, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.165923, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.363138, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.24442, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.672669, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 63831584, "relative_activity": 1.065451, "balance": 0.672669, "dry_up": 1.413771, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.206026, "annualized_volatility": 0.876738, "from_high_reference": -0.424675, "from_low_reference": 0.218125 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 35.762667, "fair_value_reference": 27.843398, "structural_low": 22.51, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.070025, "positive_rate": 0.411765, "directional_follow_through": 0.588235, "median_excess_return": -0.050492, "regime_survival": 0.823529, "best_return": 0.394847, "worst_return": -0.224608, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.091688, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.08704, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 1.303699, "worst_return": -0.24975, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.051185, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.104553, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.847502, "worst_return": -0.315111, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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43.682301, "energy": 21.528884, "activity_lines": [ 38.203334, 38.071091, 37.432762, 37.036108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 44.0, "volume": 126652156, "typical_volume": 56832707.45, "trend": 36.264, "fair_value": 28.265385, "relative_strength": 30.913925, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.155433, "energy": 58.38413, "activity_lines": [ 40.396667, 39.100182, 38.055953, 37.567764 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 27.83, "volume": 115813050, "typical_volume": 58607976.7, "trend": 36.178667, "fair_value": 28.182949, "relative_strength": -12.064216, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "up", "direction": -6.623482, "energy": 3.468825, "activity_lines": [ 36.651333, 37.097818, 37.145286, 37.023635 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 24.5, "volume": 97593207, "typical_volume": 58951461.05, "trend": 36.047, "fair_value": 28.061026, "relative_strength": -23.4122, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -45.171681, "energy": 50.748737, "activity_lines": [ 32.162667, 34.719818, 35.979381, 36.270172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.85, "volume": 61560595, "typical_volume": 59243736.2, "trend": 35.860333, "fair_value": 27.924167, "relative_strength": -25.566878, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.864267, "energy": 77.051779, "activity_lines": [ 28.466, 32.490909, 34.816286, 35.483269 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.42, "volume": 63831584, "typical_volume": 59910412.65, "trend": 35.762667, "fair_value": 27.843398, "relative_strength": -16.592317, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.222991, "energy": 75.13956, "activity_lines": [ 27.044, 31.212909, 34.051619, 34.938731 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }