{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e5f21a4e-af82-4032-9577-f69aaa5fa2e9", "symbol": "SCIO", "name": "FIRST TR EXCHANGE TRADED FD IV STRUCTURED CREDIT INCOME OPPORTUNITIES E", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 84.759, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 34.596, "architecture_energy": 13.161, "architecture_maturity": 29.846, "architecture_confidence": 73.777, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.98, "rotation_up": 33.83, "upward_expansion": 54.18, "deceleration": 79.73, "rotation_down": 27.96, "downward_expansion": 22.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.523631, 20.531119, 20.52474, 20.517371 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 20.58, "trend_reference": 20.507786, "distance_from_trend": 0.003521, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.199532, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.071901, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.968186, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.003904, "excess_performance": -0.121721, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.003521, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004326, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.071901, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005784, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.099682, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007538, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.003904, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.8377, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1189750, "relative_activity": 1.219226, "balance": 0.8377, "dry_up": 0.893648, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.007049, "annualized_volatility": 0.02875, "from_high_reference": -0.02001, "from_low_reference": 0.043537 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.507786, "fair_value_reference": 19.199532, "structural_low": 20.242726, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.004634, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.019619, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.008533, "worst_return": -0.004871, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"fair_value": 19.178334, "relative_strength": -6.898391, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.265813, "energy": 9.518618, "activity_lines": [ 20.515201, 20.529614, 20.518163, 20.512892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.49, "volume": 642882, "typical_volume": 951020.05, "trend": 20.503308, "fair_value": 19.188662, "relative_strength": -7.494227, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 3.507515, "energy": 6.693234, "activity_lines": [ 20.500599, 20.522494, 20.517225, 20.512423 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.58, "volume": 1189750, "typical_volume": 975824.05, "trend": 20.507786, "fair_value": 19.199532, "relative_strength": -9.968186, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.5961, "energy": 13.160609, "activity_lines": [ 20.523631, 20.531119, 20.52474, 20.517371 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }