{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e5f69493-4a5e-4f8f-b5ff-8374725b3e3b", "symbol": "000619", "name": "Conch (Anhui) Energy Saving and Environment Protection New Material Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.266, "architecture_energy": 60.57, "architecture_maturity": 80.668, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.88, "rotation_up": 25.17, "upward_expansion": 11.17, "deceleration": 60.66, "rotation_down": 56.49, "downward_expansion": 84.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.452, 4.511818, 4.946381, 5.253656 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.64, "trend_reference": 5.636667, "distance_from_trend": -0.176818, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.716026, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.188247, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.149038, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.288344, "excess_performance": -0.295743, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.176818, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.093492, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.188247, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.2503, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.24149, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050252, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.288344, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.246717, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 31193456, "relative_activity": 0.981512, "balance": 0.246717, "dry_up": 1.157641, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 7 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.084383, "annualized_volatility": 0.302618, "from_high_reference": -0.459207, "from_low_reference": 0.140049 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.636667, "fair_value_reference": 5.716026, "structural_low": 4.07, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.001681, "positive_rate": 0.52381, "directional_follow_through": 0.47619, "median_excess_return": 0.010683, "regime_survival": 0.761905, "best_return": 0.331606, "worst_return": -0.200758, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.012461, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.048536, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.436314, "worst_return": -0.297479, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.012101, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.061292, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.149515, "worst_return": -0.224, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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32543141.4, "trend": 5.818333, "fair_value": 5.752885, "relative_strength": -28.026411, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.254068, "energy": 90.570084, "activity_lines": [ 4.464, 4.768727, 5.234095, 5.509011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.18, "volume": 44335252, "typical_volume": 32338229.0, "trend": 5.750667, "fair_value": 5.739359, "relative_strength": -30.531971, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.263291, "energy": 87.543825, "activity_lines": [ 4.348, 4.606, 5.103762, 5.403312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.48, "volume": 33972207, "typical_volume": 32140474.8, "trend": 5.689, "fair_value": 5.727436, "relative_strength": -23.658795, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.299211, "energy": 66.101187, "activity_lines": [ 4.373333, 4.530909, 5.012952, 5.321333 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.64, "volume": 31193456, "typical_volume": 31781026.45, "trend": 5.636667, "fair_value": 5.716026, "relative_strength": -24.149038, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.266166, "energy": 60.569972, "activity_lines": [ 4.452, 4.511818, 4.946381, 5.253656 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }