{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e5fe2b08-e1d5-4d6f-bd26-a0caeb3c2fba", "symbol": "CDI", "name": "Christian Dior SE", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.734, "architecture_energy": 44.937, "architecture_maturity": 18.475, "architecture_confidence": 85.187, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.26, "rotation_up": 11.4, "upward_expansion": 7.03, "deceleration": 43.06, "rotation_down": 60.01, "downward_expansion": 78.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 436.453327, 444.378177, 446.161035, 449.43656 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 435.799988, "trend_reference": 461.624159, "distance_from_trend": -0.055942, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 558.058237, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.219078, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -16.92777, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.120616, "excess_performance": -0.173927, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.055942, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.082452, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.219078, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016699, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.169278, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.072102, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.120616, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.820385, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17283, "relative_activity": 0.766075, "balance": 0.820385, "dry_up": 0.837472, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.0535, "annualized_volatility": 0.279689, "from_high_reference": -0.271985, "from_low_reference": 0.050627 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 461.624159, "fair_value_reference": 558.058237, "structural_low": 414.799988, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.027484, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.029015, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.152263, "worst_return": -0.159702, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.064077, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.033556, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.22833, "worst_return": -0.185822, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.021181, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.059074, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.123378, "worst_return": -0.210194, 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{ "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.168203, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.017609, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.041994, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.027484, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.052036, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": 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31.91549, "activity_lines": [ 443.853331, 450.374543, 448.068528, 453.883969 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 434.399994, "volume": 21327, "typical_volume": 23501.1, "trend": 466.969524, "fair_value": 559.850618, "relative_strength": -15.365324, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.293626, "energy": 34.460525, "activity_lines": [ 439.133329, 447.152724, 447.011344, 451.447498 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 435.799988, "volume": 17283, "typical_volume": 22560.45, "trend": 461.624159, "fair_value": 558.058237, "relative_strength": -16.92777, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.733827, "energy": 44.937116, "activity_lines": [ 436.453327, 444.378177, 446.161035, 449.43656 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }