{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e6028d54-49c1-4a1d-80a9-897716bead99", "symbol": "4553", "name": "ALFOT Technologies Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.603, "architecture_energy": 73.14, "architecture_maturity": 26.063, "architecture_confidence": 95.636, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.98, "rotation_up": 24.94, "upward_expansion": 18.75, "deceleration": 37.1, "rotation_down": 56.76, "downward_expansion": 94.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.540001, 16.704832, 17.533432, 18.108985 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 16.700001, "trend_reference": 18.530281, "distance_from_trend": -0.098772, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 20.07501, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.16812, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -35.410771, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.101608, "excess_performance": -0.54298, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.098772, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018204, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.16812, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051645, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.354108, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015602, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.101608, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.583031, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7008, "relative_activity": 0.03671, "balance": 0.583031, "dry_up": 0.217646, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.056752, "annualized_volatility": 0.791213, "from_high_reference": -0.5514, "from_low_reference": 0.037267 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.530281, "fair_value_reference": 20.07501, "structural_low": 16.1, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.423077, "median_excess_return": -0.010918, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.157984, "worst_return": -0.054167, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.026681, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.047792, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.115556, "worst_return": -0.076355, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.048438, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.076524, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.249415, "worst_return": -0.117245, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"activity_lines": [ 17.077715, 17.399448, 18.651054, 18.785485 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 16.799999, "volume": 46026, "typical_volume": 193610.95, "trend": 18.726348, "fair_value": 20.252294, "relative_strength": -33.838098, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.306657, "energy": 47.624253, "activity_lines": [ 16.980224, 17.196762, 18.43157, 18.658633 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.85, "volume": 106118, "typical_volume": 193850.0, "trend": 18.688165, "fair_value": 20.212682, "relative_strength": -34.31298, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.956905, "energy": 58.325854, "activity_lines": [ 16.9, 17.093217, 18.228427, 18.537579 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.1, "volume": 49006, "typical_volume": 191849.8, "trend": 18.624981, "fair_value": 20.168879, "relative_strength": -35.594675, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.984074, "energy": 64.73996, "activity_lines": [ 16.6, 16.87953, 17.959545, 18.3706 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.450001, "volume": 4065, "typical_volume": 190552.15, "trend": 18.580056, "fair_value": 20.120526, "relative_strength": -34.958856, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.118905, "energy": 69.943092, "activity_lines": [ 16.516667, 16.758549, 17.73161, 18.230279 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 16.700001, "volume": 7008, "typical_volume": 190902.55, "trend": 18.530281, "fair_value": 20.07501, "relative_strength": -35.410771, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.603443, "energy": 73.140131, "activity_lines": [ 16.540001, 16.704832, 17.533432, 18.108985 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }