{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e60b20ab-e67a-415c-8829-99331f3230e4", "symbol": "PLA", "name": "Pacific Lime and Cement Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 50.02, "architecture_energy": 33.262, "architecture_maturity": 52.402, "architecture_confidence": 82.307, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.12, "rotation_up": 39.0, "upward_expansion": 65.95, "deceleration": 84.32, "rotation_down": 26.34, "downward_expansion": 15.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.381667, 0.382455, 0.369548, 0.349785 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.39, "trend_reference": 0.327167, "distance_from_trend": 0.192053, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.26524, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.470364, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 21.577356, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.471698, "excess_performance": 0.407992, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.192053, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.117563, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.470364, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.162736, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.215774, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041744, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.471698, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.632498, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3456046, "relative_activity": 1.427664, "balance": 0.632498, "dry_up": 1.186303, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.083826, "annualized_volatility": 0.390789, "from_high_reference": -0.071429, "from_low_reference": 0.659574 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.327167, "fair_value_reference": 0.26524, "structural_low": 0.235, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.054563, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": 0.0256, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.280702, "worst_return": -0.254902, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.034483, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.056011, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.425926, "worst_return": -0.176471, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.016968, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.027667, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.45, "worst_return": -0.490196, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.206897, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.16577, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.625, "worst_return": -0.176471, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.026316, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.115385, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.142857, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.111111, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.053571, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.144737, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.258065, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.173913, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.196078, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.116667, "active": false }, { 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"trend": 0.318167, "fair_value": 0.262516, "relative_strength": 27.208283, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.756266, "energy": 53.367678, "activity_lines": [ 0.386, 0.382091, 0.357381, 0.338452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.375, "volume": 2115386, "typical_volume": 2335539.05, "trend": 0.322167, "fair_value": 0.263638, "relative_strength": 24.981329, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.189441, "energy": 44.587481, "activity_lines": [ 0.382667, 0.381364, 0.361476, 0.342118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.375, "volume": 2749953, "typical_volume": 2292126.1, "trend": 0.324, "fair_value": 0.264439, "relative_strength": 21.253827, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.509113, "energy": 33.646431, "activity_lines": [ 0.379333, 0.380636, 0.365048, 0.345527 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.39, "volume": 3456046, "typical_volume": 2420769.9, "trend": 0.327167, "fair_value": 0.26524, "relative_strength": 21.577356, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.019883, "energy": 33.261806, "activity_lines": [ 0.381667, 0.382455, 0.369548, 0.349785 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }