{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e61561e0-2fda-48e8-bc5e-ec120697c217", "symbol": "600732", "name": "Shanghai Aiko Solar Energy Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.097, "architecture_energy": 41.708, "architecture_maturity": 16.683, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.03, "rotation_up": 20.59, "upward_expansion": 6.25, "deceleration": 46.84, "rotation_down": 49.86, "downward_expansion": 77.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.998667, 12.19, 12.67181, 13.17557 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 12.18, "trend_reference": 13.669, "distance_from_trend": -0.108933, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.867115, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.121663, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.863897, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.104412, "excess_performance": -0.061208, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.108933, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045328, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.121663, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.115031, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.138639, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.093115, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.104412, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.203569, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 138270655, "relative_activity": 0.767471, "balance": 0.203569, "dry_up": 0.854907, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.108753, "annualized_volatility": 0.423535, "from_high_reference": -0.31573, "from_low_reference": 0.10929 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.669, "fair_value_reference": 13.867115, "structural_low": 10.98, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.032056, "positive_rate": 0.56, "directional_follow_through": 0.44, "median_excess_return": 0.022567, "regime_survival": 0.76, "best_return": 0.773399, "worst_return": -0.18583, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.014144, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.01171, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.738095, "worst_return": -0.323563, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.101894, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.100487, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 1.802135, "worst_return": -0.445983, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"typical_volume": 193040804.95, "trend": 13.756667, "fair_value": 14.061923, "relative_strength": -17.923614, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.153315, "energy": 45.889086, "activity_lines": [ 11.956, 12.177818, 12.909714, 13.364366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.36, "volume": 147819897, "typical_volume": 184016359.75, "trend": 13.709667, "fair_value": 13.961667, "relative_strength": -10.621752, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.82965, "energy": 50.088285, "activity_lines": [ 11.993333, 12.197091, 12.792571, 13.274258 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.18, "volume": 138270655, "typical_volume": 180164055.5, "trend": 13.669, "fair_value": 13.867115, "relative_strength": -13.863897, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.097331, "energy": 41.708071, "activity_lines": [ 11.998667, 12.19, 12.67181, 13.17557 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }