{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e61ea1a0-9e68-45b4-b865-66fa32c97f21", "symbol": "NETEL", "name": "Netel Holding AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.426, "architecture_energy": 40.795, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 95.119, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.17, "rotation_up": 23.06, "upward_expansion": 5.31, "deceleration": 53.49, "rotation_down": 48.24, "downward_expansion": 76.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.176667, 3.207091, 3.388857, 3.528097 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 3.205, "trend_reference": 3.724833, "distance_from_trend": -0.139559, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.470801, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.693911, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -42.996916, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.17715, "excess_performance": -0.238645, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.139559, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.088614, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.693911, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.068283, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.429969, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001458, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.17715, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.317797, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 171084, "relative_activity": 0.459432, "balance": 0.317797, "dry_up": 1.400966, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.112565, "annualized_volatility": 0.514968, "from_high_reference": -0.786333, "from_low_reference": 0.105172 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.724833, "fair_value_reference": 10.470801, "structural_low": 2.9, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.046, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.050955, "regime_survival": 0.928571, "best_return": 0.478947, "worst_return": -0.336735, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.190419, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.188421, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.878378, "worst_return": -0.397959, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.29661, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.329904, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 1.048649, "worst_return": -0.622449, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-02-02", "end": "2024-02-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.064748, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2024-03-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.015686, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-03-08", "end": "2024-05-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.263333, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.152, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.140662, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.027457, 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"method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }