{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e61f11f8-c453-498e-b6db-a92dd6ecf7e7", "symbol": "SBO", "name": "Selvaag Bolig ASA", "exchange": "OSL", "country": "NO", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "OSEBX.OL", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 58.804, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Neutral compression", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -42.105, "architecture_energy": 18.768, "architecture_maturity": 57.068, "architecture_confidence": 87.901, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.33, "rotation_up": 20.4, "upward_expansion": 3.02, "deceleration": 46.74, "rotation_down": 42.68, "downward_expansion": 71.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 33.349999, 33.374545, 33.51224, 33.529719 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 33.349998, "trend_reference": 33.550063, "distance_from_trend": -0.005963, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 32.565959, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.024075, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -12.295845, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.006856, "excess_performance": -0.118138, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.005963, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003255, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.024075, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012958, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.122958, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.049563, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.006856, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 6.139609, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 78052, "relative_activity": 0.733314, "balance": 6.139609, "dry_up": 0.606996, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.043017, "annualized_volatility": 0.147886, "from_high_reference": -0.09648, "from_low_reference": 0.056424 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 33.550063, "fair_value_reference": 32.565959, "structural_low": 31.811607, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.00135, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.026197, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.081994, "worst_return": -0.10023, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.008004, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.069927, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.162379, "worst_return": -0.130488, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.013757, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.057716, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.053009, "worst_return": 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false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.02521, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.041436, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.090177, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.024725, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.061475, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": 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33.619091, 33.598138, 33.636136 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 32.799999, "volume": 30643, "typical_volume": 115329.95, "trend": 33.737527, "fair_value": 32.470107, "relative_strength": -12.216267, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.462981, "energy": 34.830359, "activity_lines": [ 33.240001, 33.471818, 33.523605, 33.572762 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 33.5, "volume": 124542, "typical_volume": 114802.7, "trend": 33.691816, "fair_value": 32.503226, "relative_strength": -12.129631, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.752965, "energy": 23.906425, "activity_lines": [ 33.32, 33.446364, 33.521441, 33.557438 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 33.5, "volume": 25191, "typical_volume": 111220.1, "trend": 33.587823, "fair_value": 32.535214, "relative_strength": -12.073775, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.019966, "energy": 19.305389, "activity_lines": [ 33.36, 33.419091, 33.523725, 33.545063 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 33.349998, "volume": 78052, "typical_volume": 106437.3, "trend": 33.550063, "fair_value": 32.565959, "relative_strength": -12.295845, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.105248, "energy": 18.768124, "activity_lines": [ 33.349999, 33.374545, 33.51224, 33.529719 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }