{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e620c0f4-c540-4df0-9ab4-f99baa653601", "symbol": "UGPA3", "name": "Ultrapar Participa\u00e7\u00f5es S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 66.787, "architecture_energy": 82.684, "architecture_maturity": 13.755, "architecture_confidence": 81.879, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.31, "rotation_up": 80.07, "upward_expansion": 95.17, "deceleration": 41.84, "rotation_down": 8.09, "downward_expansion": 19.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 32.105333, 30.374364, 29.199905, 28.732301 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 31.280001, "trend_reference": 27.880333, "distance_from_trend": 0.121938, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.000113, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.489516, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 23.804599, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.172853, "excess_performance": 0.229902, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.121938, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.101628, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.489516, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020926, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.238046, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017457, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.172853, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.383974, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 45764800, "relative_activity": 1.568942, "balance": 1.383974, "dry_up": 1.885561, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.061578, "annualized_volatility": 0.327881, "from_high_reference": -0.063193, "from_low_reference": 1.054265 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.880333, "fair_value_reference": 21.000113, "structural_low": 24.41, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.020982, "positive_rate": 0.521739, "directional_follow_through": 0.521739, "median_excess_return": 0.000323, "regime_survival": 0.782609, "best_return": 0.199157, "worst_return": -0.148644, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.041871, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.047903, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.464074, "worst_return": -0.218583, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.308304, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.113375, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.528922, "worst_return": -0.311609, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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27.911091, 28.052095, 27.72615 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 32.709999, "volume": 36910600, "typical_volume": 29071635.0, "trend": 27.145667, "fair_value": 20.799647, "relative_strength": 30.632588, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.443814, "energy": 69.056626, "activity_lines": [ 30.974666, 28.868, 28.500238, 28.110624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 33.05, "volume": 31595400, "typical_volume": 28707625.0, "trend": 27.548333, "fair_value": 20.904315, "relative_strength": 27.930825, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.311119, "energy": 88.972919, "activity_lines": [ 32.083333, 29.821636, 28.950857, 28.491548 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 31.280001, "volume": 45764800, "typical_volume": 29169220.0, "trend": 27.880333, "fair_value": 21.000113, "relative_strength": 23.804599, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.7874, "energy": 82.684074, "activity_lines": [ 32.105333, 30.374364, 29.199905, 28.732301 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }