{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e6250edc-6f3c-486b-90f2-d26c3b9c0ba6", "symbol": "SFM", "name": "Santa Fe Minerals Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -81.436, "architecture_energy": 53.622, "architecture_maturity": 68.594, "architecture_confidence": 81.457, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.3, "rotation_up": 27.11, "upward_expansion": 7.93, "deceleration": 60.54, "rotation_down": 49.96, "downward_expansion": 74.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.25, 0.252455, 0.261119, 0.272925 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.23, "trend_reference": 0.286167, "distance_from_trend": -0.196273, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.12516, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.837644, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.160683, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.115385, "excess_performance": -0.17909, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.196273, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031585, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.837644, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.673834, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.201607, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.32405, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.115385, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.491216, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 72570, "relative_activity": 0.463417, "balance": 0.491216, "dry_up": 0.247073, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.068562, "annualized_volatility": 0.549087, "from_high_reference": -0.432099, "from_low_reference": 0.121951 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.286167, "fair_value_reference": 0.12516, "structural_low": 0.23, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.393939, "median_excess_return": 0.001827, "regime_survival": 0.878788, "best_return": 0.411765, "worst_return": -0.288136, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.022727, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.045217, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.764706, "worst_return": -0.278689, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.2, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.240566, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 5.5625, "worst_return": -0.295082, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.551724, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.045455, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.019608, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.428571, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": 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"fair_value": 0.118442, "relative_strength": -11.519548, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.055116, "energy": 88.870117, "activity_lines": [ 0.252333, 0.262182, 0.275667, 0.285022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.25, "volume": 42030, "typical_volume": 201303.0, "trend": 0.292833, "fair_value": 0.119776, "relative_strength": -9.537628, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.277037, "energy": 83.662926, "activity_lines": [ 0.25, 0.258818, 0.271667, 0.282151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.27, "volume": 11854, "typical_volume": 191572.7, "trend": 0.2915, "fair_value": 0.121218, "relative_strength": -1.776632, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.900444, "energy": 56.990459, "activity_lines": [ 0.256333, 0.259636, 0.269833, 0.280677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.27, "volume": 68327, "typical_volume": 174808.4, "trend": 0.290167, "fair_value": 0.12266, "relative_strength": -1.480727, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.136825, "energy": 37.809235, "activity_lines": [ 0.261333, 0.260455, 0.268238, 0.27929 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.25, "volume": 2013, "typical_volume": 160665.5, "trend": 0.2885, "fair_value": 0.123974, "relative_strength": -10.642139, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.303693, "energy": 36.992181, "activity_lines": [ 0.259, 0.258, 0.265357, 0.276699 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.23, "volume": 72570, "typical_volume": 156597.75, "trend": 0.286167, "fair_value": 0.12516, "relative_strength": -20.160683, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.435997, "energy": 53.621732, "activity_lines": [ 0.25, 0.252455, 0.261119, 0.272925 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }