{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e6374145-f243-4df5-a568-1e8c8872d7c1", "symbol": "MAU", "name": "Montage Gold Corp.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 85.771, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 67.089, "architecture_energy": 33.423, "architecture_maturity": 46.583, "architecture_confidence": 71.182, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.59, "rotation_up": 48.16, "upward_expansion": 71.85, "deceleration": 65.31, "rotation_down": 25.21, "downward_expansion": 9.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.784, 16.601636, 16.096809, 15.755097 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 18.299999, "trend_reference": 15.100333, "distance_from_trend": 0.211894, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.247436, "distance_from_fair_value": 2.487417, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 40.514866, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.396946, "excess_performance": 0.276525, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.211894, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.207093, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 2.487417, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.175741, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.405149, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.087094, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.396946, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.204297, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7388900, "relative_activity": 1.895671, "balance": 2.204297, "dry_up": 1.054056, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.10166, "annualized_volatility": 0.697892, "from_high_reference": -0.002725, "from_low_reference": 2.667334 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.100333, "fair_value_reference": 5.247436, "structural_low": 12.28, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": 0.052065, "positive_rate": 0.617647, "directional_follow_through": 0.617647, "median_excess_return": 0.023434, "regime_survival": 0.823529, "best_return": 0.6, "worst_return": -0.160494, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.226331, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.150071, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 1.002356, "worst_return": -0.333333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.80116, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.690132, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 2.10219, "worst_return": -0.345679, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"fair_value": 4.840897, "relative_strength": 45.415286, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.15521, "energy": 58.812944, "activity_lines": [ 16.819333, 16.252909, 15.721666, 15.258021 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 15.2, "volume": 3446100, "typical_volume": 5420015.0, "trend": 14.403333, "fair_value": 4.934359, "relative_strength": 26.567679, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.637288, "energy": 31.705728, "activity_lines": [ 16.351999, 16.144545, 15.695285, 15.321398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.4, "volume": 2579400, "typical_volume": 5295535.0, "trend": 14.617333, "fair_value": 5.035705, "relative_strength": 33.904422, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.573276, "energy": 31.371358, "activity_lines": [ 16.332666, 16.241636, 15.791762, 15.450215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.86, "volume": 3019500, "typical_volume": 5192660.0, "trend": 14.817, "fair_value": 5.133718, "relative_strength": 27.955146, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.236665, "energy": 19.47382, "activity_lines": [ 16.149333, 16.213818, 15.830333, 15.530387 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.299999, "volume": 7388900, "typical_volume": 3897775.0, "trend": 15.100333, "fair_value": 5.247436, "relative_strength": 40.514866, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.089393, "energy": 33.423164, "activity_lines": [ 16.784, 16.601636, 16.096809, 15.755097 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }