{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e63e3194-b04d-4238-b3a3-57a8322b90f6", "symbol": "KAMATHOTEL", "name": "Kamat Hotels (India) Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -35.667, "architecture_energy": 24.895, "architecture_maturity": 30.128, "architecture_confidence": 71.13, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.46, "rotation_up": 14.81, "upward_expansion": 11.99, "deceleration": 58.53, "rotation_down": 55.25, "downward_expansion": 66.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 171.476002, 174.759092, 173.588762, 174.376968 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 170.800003, "trend_reference": 179.175667, "distance_from_trend": -0.046746, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 234.783847, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.272522, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.161033, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.064468, "excess_performance": -0.020759, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.046746, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.108375, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.272522, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007184, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.21161, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018204, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.064468, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.747741, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 118237, "relative_activity": 0.54661, "balance": 0.747741, "dry_up": 0.649218, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.079468, "annualized_volatility": 0.414945, "from_high_reference": -0.48211, "from_low_reference": 0.21826 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 179.175667, "fair_value_reference": 234.783847, "structural_low": 140.199997, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.120296, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.120132, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.404222, "worst_return": -0.086534, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.309713, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.282511, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.647239, "worst_return": -0.153769, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.067823, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.111032, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.056294, "worst_return": -0.280769, "sufficient": 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decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 6.328289, "energy": 18.342764, "activity_lines": [ 182.592668, 178.173454, 174.389429, 177.887291 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 176.929993, "volume": 109956, "typical_volume": 247323.1, "trend": 185.774667, "fair_value": 235.801475, "relative_strength": -19.16109, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -4.511055, "energy": 18.752979, "activity_lines": [ 182.110666, 178.526726, 174.660237, 177.191935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 169.110001, "volume": 199915, "typical_volume": 245152.45, "trend": 183.569, "fair_value": 235.425257, "relative_strength": -20.415703, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.120177, "energy": 12.773394, "activity_lines": [ 178.124666, 177.427454, 174.235523, 176.116796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 166.990005, "volume": 133620, "typical_volume": 225010.05, "trend": 181.188334, "fair_value": 234.971347, "relative_strength": -22.920574, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.127295, "energy": 18.352073, "activity_lines": [ 173.560668, 175.786182, 173.679381, 175.047183 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 170.800003, "volume": 118237, "typical_volume": 216309.55, "trend": 179.175667, "fair_value": 234.783847, "relative_strength": -21.161033, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.666921, "energy": 24.894859, "activity_lines": [ 171.476002, 174.759092, 173.588762, 174.376968 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }