{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e644c457-d0e5-494a-bdb7-1f8e26079147", "symbol": "EUO", "name": "PROSHARES TRUST II PROSHARES ULTRASHORT EURO", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 58.919, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 45.178, "architecture_energy": 32.443, "architecture_maturity": 60.424, "architecture_confidence": 43.923, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.81, "rotation_up": 39.0, "upward_expansion": 66.13, "deceleration": 65.18, "rotation_down": 25.64, "downward_expansion": 16.13 }, "activity_lines": [ 30.403927, 30.480638, 30.100653, 29.824694 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 30.0885, "trend_reference": 29.420933, "distance_from_trend": 0.02269, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 30.361807, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.009002, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.659575, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.068484, "excess_performance": -0.057141, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.02269, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019495, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.009002, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045008, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.076596, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036451, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.068484, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.245414, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 79123, "relative_activity": 0.429168, "balance": 1.245414, "dry_up": 0.539721, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.021128, "annualized_volatility": 0.124959, "from_high_reference": -0.033456, "from_low_reference": 0.117286 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 29.420933, "fair_value_reference": 30.361807, "structural_low": 27.63, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.00029, "positive_rate": 0.482759, "directional_follow_through": 0.482759, "median_excess_return": -0.019049, "regime_survival": 0.758621, "best_return": 0.064375, "worst_return": -0.086603, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.034876, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.021527, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.140428, "worst_return": -0.156179, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.005052, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.09671, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.24575, "worst_return": -0.150319, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.048794, "energy": 78.203073, "activity_lines": [ 30.77854, 30.549373, 30.029192, 29.724761 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 30.17, "volume": 147640, "typical_volume": 197337.75, "trend": 29.382317, "fair_value": 30.355256, "relative_strength": -4.415701, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.88252, "energy": 45.734345, "activity_lines": [ 30.58294, 30.52824, 30.068637, 29.779134 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 30.0885, "volume": 79123, "typical_volume": 184363.75, "trend": 29.420933, "fair_value": 30.361807, "relative_strength": -7.659575, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.177548, "energy": 32.443469, "activity_lines": [ 30.403927, 30.480638, 30.100653, 29.824694 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }