{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e644d32d-9f57-41ad-9510-648b896d4c8d", "symbol": "PSTV", "name": "Plus Therapeutics Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.787, "architecture_energy": 49.776, "architecture_maturity": 81.055, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.57, "rotation_up": 22.5, "upward_expansion": 7.04, "deceleration": 51.51, "rotation_down": 58.76, "downward_expansion": 82.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.84, 3.976, 4.590952, 4.995559 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 3.83, "trend_reference": 5.54, "distance_from_trend": -0.308664, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 26.546667, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.855726, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -64.539328, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.410543, "excess_performance": -0.597996, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.308664, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.381576, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.855726, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046458, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.645393, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.128651, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.410543, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.383306, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 463012, "relative_activity": 0.106181, "balance": 0.383306, "dry_up": 0.134235, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.233784, "annualized_volatility": 1.077166, "from_high_reference": -0.836499, "from_low_reference": 0.32069 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.54, "fair_value_reference": 26.546667, "structural_low": 2.9, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 50, "median_return": -0.075371, "positive_rate": 0.22, "directional_follow_through": 0.76, "median_excess_return": -0.097429, "regime_survival": 0.94, "best_return": 1.286957, "worst_return": -0.506754, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.247253, "positive_rate": 0.117647, "directional_follow_through": 0.823529, "median_excess_return": -0.250672, "regime_survival": 0.823529, "best_return": 0.93856, "worst_return": -0.5204, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.410543, "positive_rate": 0.111111, "directional_follow_through": 0.888889, "median_excess_return": -0.397826, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.543508, "worst_return": -0.689914, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.209649, "energy": 71.015429, "activity_lines": [ 3.884667, 4.227636, 4.834738, 5.278366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.87, "volume": 346206, "typical_volume": 5241081.85, "trend": 5.875, "fair_value": 26.922756, "relative_strength": -63.718336, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.754044, "energy": 61.427557, "activity_lines": [ 3.858, 4.080727, 4.709083, 5.127495 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.83, "volume": 463012, "typical_volume": 4360592.4, "trend": 5.54, "fair_value": 26.546667, "relative_strength": -64.539328, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.787418, "energy": 49.776139, "activity_lines": [ 3.84, 3.976, 4.590952, 4.995559 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }