{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e64a42b1-c617-4f10-8f2c-3a5147f5c1f0", "symbol": "LST", "name": "Light Science Technologies Holdings Plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -41.563, "architecture_energy": 27.196, "architecture_maturity": 53.808, "architecture_confidence": 62.051, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.96, "rotation_up": 21.19, "upward_expansion": 13.52, "deceleration": 65.13, "rotation_down": 42.88, "downward_expansion": 63.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.016867, 0.016782, 0.017808, 0.018804 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.017, "trend_reference": 0.022392, "distance_from_trend": -0.240789, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.029587, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.425427, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -49.912113, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.546667, "excess_performance": -0.597902, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.240789, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.31226, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.425427, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.197865, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.499121, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.095526, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.546667, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.788934, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11002643, "relative_activity": 0.380759, "balance": 0.788934, "dry_up": 0.351357, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.215113, "annualized_volatility": 1.796693, "from_high_reference": -0.760563, "from_low_reference": 0.7 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.022392, "fair_value_reference": 0.029587, "structural_low": 0.01, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.111111, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.075953, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 1.047619, "worst_return": -0.1875, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.294118, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": 0.211165, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 1.829268, "worst_return": -0.145833, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.446644, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.362964, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 1.416667, "worst_return": -0.606557, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.017857, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.278689, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.012821, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.340909, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.177966, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", 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"trend": 0.024308, "fair_value": 0.029633, "relative_strength": -53.536619, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.906436, "energy": 44.328198, "activity_lines": [ 0.015767, 0.0169, 0.017663, 0.019589 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0185, "volume": 14554540, "typical_volume": 30632425.2, "trend": 0.023358, "fair_value": 0.029616, "relative_strength": -46.179223, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.596626, "energy": 35.028494, "activity_lines": [ 0.0167, 0.016927, 0.017824, 0.019214 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.017, "volume": 11002643, "typical_volume": 28896572.4, "trend": 0.022392, "fair_value": 0.029587, "relative_strength": -49.912113, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.563429, "energy": 27.195919, "activity_lines": [ 0.016867, 0.016782, 0.017808, 0.018804 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }