{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e64b5e9f-192b-47cc-9eab-87890de11698", "symbol": "00675L", "name": "Fubon TAIEX Daily 2X Leveraged ETF", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 95.431, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 30.452, "architecture_energy": 24.532, "architecture_maturity": 76.402, "architecture_confidence": 89.89, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.4, "rotation_up": 22.14, "upward_expansion": 55.59, "deceleration": 91.16, "rotation_down": 33.26, "downward_expansion": 19.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 290.246669, 301.748185, 296.217383, 274.775915 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 292.0, "trend_reference": 244.858334, "distance_from_trend": 0.192526, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 117.223077, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.490977, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 18.593664, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.653922, "excess_performance": 0.274611, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.192526, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.308563, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.490977, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.441764, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.185937, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.231709, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.653922, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.561755, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8859407, "relative_activity": 0.747646, "balance": 0.561755, "dry_up": 1.188799, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.118467, "annualized_volatility": 0.588604, "from_high_reference": -0.163324, "from_low_reference": 2.141474 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 244.858334, "fair_value_reference": 117.223077, "structural_low": 165.100006, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.035577, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": 0.014173, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.428489, "worst_return": -0.109057, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.189663, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.105664, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.972374, "worst_return": -0.128215, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.151987, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.074708, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.276462, "worst_return": -0.26864, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.055109, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.017544, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.060427, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.087277, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.350859, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": 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"direction": 43.742578, "energy": 33.60325, "activity_lines": [ 301.360004, 310.049094, 292.286668, 268.112904 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 286.600006, "volume": 21498849, "typical_volume": 12217097.75, "trend": 240.091668, "fair_value": 115.721154, "relative_strength": 20.434353, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.834058, "energy": 23.805585, "activity_lines": [ 294.156671, 305.414549, 294.237621, 271.426991 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 292.0, "volume": 8859407, "typical_volume": 11849739.55, "trend": 244.858334, "fair_value": 117.223077, "relative_strength": 18.593664, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.452134, "energy": 24.532458, "activity_lines": [ 290.246669, 301.748185, 296.217383, 274.775915 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }