{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e64c1d29-628a-4690-9edb-e9eb7717dc5e", "symbol": "VINNY", "name": "Vinny Overseas Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.563, "architecture_energy": 47.567, "architecture_maturity": 5.662, "architecture_confidence": 94.387, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.39, "rotation_up": 13.15, "upward_expansion": 9.75, "deceleration": 39.26, "rotation_down": 61.21, "downward_expansion": 85.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.063333, 1.084909, 1.103095, 1.10957 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 1.07, "trend_reference": 1.121333, "distance_from_trend": -0.045779, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.366727, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.547899, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.988198, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.130081, "excess_performance": -0.086372, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.045779, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045944, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.547899, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014575, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.089882, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.059033, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.130081, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.467537, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1179263, "relative_activity": 0.71686, "balance": 0.467537, "dry_up": 0.948589, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.087707, "annualized_volatility": 0.441317, "from_high_reference": -0.300654, "from_low_reference": 0.138298 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.121333, "fair_value_reference": 2.366727, "structural_low": 0.94, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.014869, "positive_rate": 0.392857, "directional_follow_through": 0.535714, "median_excess_return": -0.009434, "regime_survival": 0.821429, "best_return": 0.275, "worst_return": -0.353448, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.008, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.055089, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 1.085295, "worst_return": -0.474138, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.015873, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.045266, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 5.550003, "worst_return": -0.391304, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-01-26", "end": "2024-02-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.051948, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-02-16", "end": "2024-03-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.407895, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-08", "end": "2024-04-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.182692, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-04-12", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.105, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.375, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.270531, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.098592, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.088, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.110169, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 2.7, "volume": 2457292, "typical_volume": 2208419.65, "trend": 7.593768, "fair_value": 3.188841, "relative_strength": -58.529881, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established 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"energy": 17.657358, "activity_lines": [ 1.121333, 1.117091, 1.124143, 1.128624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.06, "volume": 1213385, "typical_volume": 1890549.4, "trend": 1.14, "fair_value": 2.407817, "relative_strength": -9.852938, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.863781, "energy": 29.894726, "activity_lines": [ 1.098667, 1.106, 1.118524, 1.123097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.07, "volume": 2565019, "typical_volume": 1814372.45, "trend": 1.133333, "fair_value": 2.391279, "relative_strength": -6.58996, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.498967, "energy": 39.330976, "activity_lines": [ 1.08, 1.098909, 1.113905, 1.118581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.05, "volume": 1284200, "typical_volume": 1660580.4, "trend": 1.126333, "fair_value": 2.377176, "relative_strength": -10.372435, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.036586, "energy": 46.888563, "activity_lines": [ 1.064, 1.089455, 1.107238, 1.113204 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.07, "volume": 1179263, "typical_volume": 1645039.55, "trend": 1.121333, "fair_value": 2.366727, "relative_strength": -8.988198, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.563206, "energy": 47.566511, "activity_lines": [ 1.063333, 1.084909, 1.103095, 1.10957 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }