{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e653a635-fd00-422e-9bde-43158c961c70", "symbol": "2702", "name": "Hotel Holiday Garden", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1a", "phase_label": "Stage 1A \u00b7 Bottoming", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -43.609, "architecture_energy": 55.223, "architecture_maturity": 6.431, "architecture_confidence": 66.158, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.08, "rotation_up": 20.38, "upward_expansion": 19.94, "deceleration": 43.82, "rotation_down": 64.5, "downward_expansion": 61.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.523333, 12.728182, 13.098571, 13.139677 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 12.25, "trend_reference": 12.968333, "distance_from_trend": -0.055391, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.117681, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.239965, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -30.546386, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.038136, "excess_performance": -0.403236, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.055391, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026924, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.239965, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007188, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.305464, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004084, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.038136, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.396211, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 152990, "relative_activity": 0.201057, "balance": 0.396211, "dry_up": 0.310735, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.051491, "annualized_volatility": 0.475082, "from_high_reference": -0.323204, "from_low_reference": 0.118721 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.968333, "fair_value_reference": 16.117681, "structural_low": 10.95, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-04-07", "end": "2023-06-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.139186, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-06-16", "end": "2023-07-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.083984, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-08-04", "end": "2023-08-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.021739, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-08-18", "end": "2023-12-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.030448, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-12-15", "end": "2024-02-09", 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"up", "direction": 14.830939, "energy": 17.060801, "activity_lines": [ 13.04, 13.039091, 13.441429, 13.229677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.0, "volume": 203252, "typical_volume": 806867.4, "trend": 12.916667, "fair_value": 16.30282, "relative_strength": -25.681094, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.141709, "energy": 10.922719, "activity_lines": [ 13.046667, 13.031818, 13.405476, 13.237312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.6, "volume": 335191, "typical_volume": 806624.05, "trend": 12.94, "fair_value": 16.24026, "relative_strength": -26.122034, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.691131, "energy": 20.955617, "activity_lines": [ 12.92, 12.952727, 13.325, 13.216882 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.45, "volume": 254353, "typical_volume": 796447.7, "trend": 12.956667, "fair_value": 16.178251, "relative_strength": -27.861529, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.20509, "energy": 36.448426, "activity_lines": [ 12.726667, 12.854545, 13.224286, 13.185269 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 12.25, "volume": 152990, "typical_volume": 760927.2, "trend": 12.968333, "fair_value": 16.117681, "relative_strength": -30.546386, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -43.609451, "energy": 55.223313, "activity_lines": [ 12.523333, 12.728182, 13.098571, 13.139677 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }