{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e65b765a-cbdf-4844-b133-0deb740bbd83", "symbol": "MMU", "name": "Western Asset Managed Municipals Fund Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 74.5, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -36.571, "architecture_energy": 26.911, "architecture_maturity": 13.383, "architecture_confidence": 66.672, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.88, "rotation_up": 10.64, "upward_expansion": 10.3, "deceleration": 58.14, "rotation_down": 54.79, "downward_expansion": 64.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.127502, 10.199589, 10.193338, 10.202124 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 10.14, "trend_reference": 10.228236, "distance_from_trend": -0.008627, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.387023, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.080215, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.551643, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.021057, "excess_performance": -0.146682, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.008627, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004808, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.080215, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017557, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.105516, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016778, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.021057, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.95703, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 503988, "relative_activity": 0.823233, "balance": 0.95703, "dry_up": 0.877556, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.020361, "annualized_volatility": 0.108166, "from_high_reference": -0.03912, "from_low_reference": 0.088749 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.228236, "fair_value_reference": 9.387023, "structural_low": 9.824864, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.003516, "positive_rate": 0.588235, "directional_follow_through": 0.588235, "median_excess_return": -0.007427, "regime_survival": 0.470588, "best_return": 0.050659, "worst_return": -0.066942, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.017031, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.046563, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.063126, "worst_return": -0.135954, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.0099, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.027934, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.107351, "worst_return": -0.143108, 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36.841299, "activity_lines": [ 10.328255, 10.259523, 10.214746, 10.226329 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.324069, "volume": 512281, "typical_volume": 599218.25, "trend": 10.23343, "fair_value": 9.352611, "relative_strength": -5.85525, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 17.609315, "energy": 36.040615, "activity_lines": [ 10.332406, 10.281475, 10.225498, 10.232566 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.06, "volume": 507439, "typical_volume": 599458.3, "trend": 10.236662, "fair_value": 9.363147, "relative_strength": -7.572481, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.692872, "energy": 10.337839, "activity_lines": [ 10.241351, 10.251917, 10.211845, 10.221377 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.03, "volume": 625271, "typical_volume": 610058.65, "trend": 10.231752, "fair_value": 9.374787, "relative_strength": -8.627498, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.410975, "energy": 27.435411, "activity_lines": [ 10.154302, 10.216049, 10.196586, 10.208044 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.14, "volume": 503988, "typical_volume": 612205.6, "trend": 10.228236, "fair_value": 9.387023, "relative_strength": -10.551643, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.57103, "energy": 26.911004, "activity_lines": [ 10.127502, 10.199589, 10.193338, 10.202124 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }