{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e65f60d0-4faa-4a62-a81a-22ad38a776a5", "symbol": "ALMET", "name": "M\u00e9thanor SCA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 64.125, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 0.375, "architecture_energy": 4.237, "architecture_maturity": 21.936, "architecture_confidence": 53.987, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 65.87, "rotation_up": 23.39, "upward_expansion": 23.75, "deceleration": 73.84, "rotation_down": 36.32, "downward_expansion": 27.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.485333, 2.477455, 2.526476, 2.522022 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 2.5, "trend_reference": 2.5, "distance_from_trend": 0.0, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.628571, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.048913, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.722546, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.068376, "excess_performance": 0.015065, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.0, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002394, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.048913, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010809, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.087225, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.080152, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.068376, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.507398, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13404, "relative_activity": 2.037036, "balance": 1.507398, "dry_up": 1.727506, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.085538, "annualized_volatility": 0.262704, "from_high_reference": -0.172185, "from_low_reference": 0.106195 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.5, "fair_value_reference": 2.628571, "structural_low": 2.28, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.010571, "positive_rate": 0.352941, "directional_follow_through": 0.352941, "median_excess_return": -0.020142, "regime_survival": 0.588235, "best_return": 0.11194, "worst_return": -0.112971, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.038049, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.046126, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.022388, "worst_return": -0.100917, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.116525, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.087275, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": -0.037313, "worst_return": -0.167431, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.158304, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.116541, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.029851, "worst_return": -0.16874, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.305085, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.093023, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.149798, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.095652, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.037313, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.080537, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.022059, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.052239, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.116667, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.090226, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.070312, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.065693, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.077586, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 3.52, "volume": 6939, "typical_volume": 5780.8, "trend": 3.608218, "fair_value": 4.166042, "relative_strength": -6.097282, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.1178, "energy": 9.194768, 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"Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -11.315568, "energy": 20.559911, "activity_lines": [ 2.457333, 2.530545, 2.551333, 2.527527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.44, "volume": 4122, "typical_volume": 5434.75, "trend": 2.495333, "fair_value": 2.651968, "relative_strength": -8.522898, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.432423, "energy": 22.125889, "activity_lines": [ 2.444, 2.504727, 2.542286, 2.523656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.44, "volume": 852, "typical_volume": 5258.55, "trend": 2.494, "fair_value": 2.643955, "relative_strength": -8.384737, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -14.776899, "energy": 20.760273, "activity_lines": [ 2.441333, 2.482182, 2.532857, 2.520086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.52, "volume": 27091, "typical_volume": 6192.4, "trend": 2.496, "fair_value": 2.636391, "relative_strength": -6.349089, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -11.0452, "energy": 9.472073, "activity_lines": [ 2.473333, 2.479636, 2.530857, 2.521763 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.5, "volume": 13404, "typical_volume": 6580.15, "trend": 2.5, "fair_value": 2.628571, "relative_strength": -8.722546, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 0.375437, "energy": 4.236856, "activity_lines": [ 2.485333, 2.477455, 2.526476, 2.522022 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }