{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "e661dff5-10af-458b-81ae-493c42b52aa5",
    "symbol": "RBLD",
    "name": "FIRST TRUST EXCH TRADED FUND 2 ALERIAN US NEXTGEN INFRASTRUCTURE ETF",
    "exchange": "NYSEARCA",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 56.559,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 37.974,
    "architecture_energy": 20.161,
    "architecture_maturity": 57.601,
    "architecture_confidence": 76.687,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 44.64,
        "rotation_up": 28.02,
        "upward_expansion": 57.3,
        "deceleration": 88.14,
        "rotation_down": 27.08,
        "downward_expansion": 18.63
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        88.1517,
        88.469343,
        88.215363,
        87.0904
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 88.6621,
    "trend_reference": 85.365841,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.038613,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 67.962823,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.304568,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -2.102394,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.08867,
    "excess_performance": -0.036955,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.038613,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.055007,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.304568,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.047826,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.021024,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.041043,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.08867,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.309769,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 3558,
      "relative_activity": 0.1261,
      "balance": 0.309769,
      "dry_up": 0.315711,
      "accumulation_observations": 0,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.023381,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.125479,
      "from_high_reference": -0.02644,
      "from_low_reference": 0.23358
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 85.365841,
      "fair_value_reference": 67.962823,
      "structural_low": 79.4885,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 15,
        "median_return": 0.025371,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": 0.000354,
        "regime_survival": 0.533333,
        "best_return": 0.086236,
        "worst_return": -0.055158,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 7,
        "median_return": 0.101199,
        "positive_rate": 0.857143,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.857143,
        "median_excess_return": 0.003911,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.12247,
        "worst_return": -0.106482,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": 0.115862,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.002079,
        "regime_survival": 0.166667,
        "best_return": 0.160573,
        "worst_return": 0.015544,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.162193,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.023577,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.278873,
        "worst_return": -0.118436,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-06-21",
        "end": "2024-07-26",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.037345,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-08-02",
        "end": "2024-12-27",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.085624,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-01-03",
        "end": "2025-02-07",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.026996,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-02-14",
        "end": "2025-02-21",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.015949,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-02-28",
        "end": "2025-03-14",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.033298,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-03-21",
        "end": "2025-04-04",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.093236,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-11",
        "end": "2025-05-16",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.125087,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-05-23",
        "end": "2025-06-27",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.036945,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-07-04",
        "end": "2025-11-21",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.024186,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-11-28",
        "end": "2026-01-09",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.011299,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-01-16",
        "end": "2026-03-20",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.008007,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-03-27",
        "end": "2026-04-17",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.078572,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "start": "2026-04-24",
        "end": "2026-07-24",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.020463,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-07-31",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.020298,
        "active": true
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      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
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        "volume": 2785,
        "typical_volume": 3999.8,
        "trend": 78.864711,
        "fair_value": 64.272945,
        "relative_strength": 4.839165,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 80.665219,
        "energy": 86.351799,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "typical_volume": 3944.8,
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        "fair_value": 64.532929,
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 82.561066,
        "energy": 92.187498,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "volume": 174716,
        "typical_volume": 12322.15,
        "trend": 79.742789,
        "fair_value": 64.788704,
        "relative_strength": 2.001865,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 70.277272,
        "energy": 87.634056,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "typical_volume": 13971.1,
        "trend": 80.134146,
        "fair_value": 65.04113,
        "relative_strength": 1.070839,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 66.895524,
        "energy": 82.119929,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "close": 88.030304,
        "volume": 9879,
        "typical_volume": 14425.55,
        "trend": 80.53088,
        "fair_value": 65.304275,
        "relative_strength": 1.405069,
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 69.486217,
        "energy": 62.582036,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 88.039587,
        "volume": 8625,
        "typical_volume": 14684.25,
        "trend": 80.914977,
        "fair_value": 65.558735,
        "relative_strength": -0.013606,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 67.106478,
        "energy": 58.319764,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 88.439764,
        "volume": 12166,
        "typical_volume": 15148.35,
        "trend": 81.33096,
        "fair_value": 65.811041,
        "relative_strength": 2.97622,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 69.127055,
        "energy": 58.230335,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 88.516325,
        "volume": 11334,
        "typical_volume": 15499.75,
        "trend": 81.791569,
        "fair_value": 66.055894,
        "relative_strength": 2.432654,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 67.201231,
        "energy": 56.430779,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "close": 89.716156,
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        "typical_volume": 16305.75,
        "trend": 82.33298,
        "fair_value": 66.314065,
        "relative_strength": 2.811641,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "energy": 59.800544,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 89.81,
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        "typical_volume": 16704.75,
        "trend": 82.798022,
        "fair_value": 66.56139,
        "relative_strength": 5.302373,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 72.391476,
        "energy": 59.618342,
        "activity_lines": [
          89.225514,
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          87.020801,
          85.380637
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 88.6,
        "volume": 213067,
        "typical_volume": 27186.25,
        "trend": 83.231312,
        "fair_value": 66.804276,
        "relative_strength": 1.631542,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 63.201274,
        "energy": 52.706186,
        "activity_lines": [
          89.124059,
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          85.754958
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 89.07,
        "volume": 9866,
        "typical_volume": 27247.25,
        "trend": 83.699438,
        "fair_value": 67.041161,
        "relative_strength": 0.764698,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 61.663265,
        "energy": 51.712209,
        "activity_lines": [
          89.141909,
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          87.603192,
          86.131648
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 87.8134,
        "volume": 17551,
        "typical_volume": 27688.85,
        "trend": 84.143601,
        "fair_value": 67.267012,
        "relative_strength": 0.879854,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 47.242478,
        "energy": 37.736844,
        "activity_lines": [
          88.698877,
          88.709865,
          87.765656,
          86.397065
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 88.8918,
        "volume": 5929,
        "typical_volume": 27773.65,
        "trend": 84.594165,
        "fair_value": 67.499694,
        "relative_strength": 2.682797,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 45.862744,
        "energy": 32.589569,
        "activity_lines": [
          88.662173,
          88.780608,
          88.018138,
          86.7034
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 86.8982,
        "volume": 8594,
        "typical_volume": 28112.1,
        "trend": 84.967633,
        "fair_value": 67.725807,
        "relative_strength": -0.68273,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 37.028944,
        "energy": 21.740583,
        "activity_lines": [
          88.015893,
          88.454329,
          88.046619,
          86.852048
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 88.6621,
        "volume": 3558,
        "typical_volume": 28215.65,
        "trend": 85.365841,
        "fair_value": 67.962823,
        "relative_strength": -2.102394,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 37.97386,
        "energy": 20.160858,
        "activity_lines": [
          88.1517,
          88.469343,
          88.215363,
          87.0904
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}