{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e6626b80-271f-4bfd-810d-8344307c1849", "symbol": "GPR", "name": "Geopacific Resources Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.615, "architecture_energy": 62.527, "architecture_maturity": 63.821, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.7, "rotation_up": 24.95, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 60.51, "rotation_down": 57.16, "downward_expansion": 85.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0284, 0.029218, 0.035195, 0.039049 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.029, "trend_reference": 0.044167, "distance_from_trend": -0.343396, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.027906, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.039195, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -32.65813, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.442308, "excess_performance": -0.506013, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.343396, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037414, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.039195, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.697339, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.326581, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.534113, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.442308, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.515543, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1150003, "relative_activity": 0.960804, "balance": 0.515543, "dry_up": 0.761874, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.165782, "annualized_volatility": 0.603488, "from_high_reference": -0.539683, "from_low_reference": 0.137255 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.044167, "fair_value_reference": 0.027906, "structural_low": 0.0255, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.052626, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.041153, "regime_survival": 0.866667, "best_return": 0.555576, "worst_return": -0.566666, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.117647, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.220997, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.722222, "worst_return": -0.671432, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.302311, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.269536, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.294118, "worst_return": -0.757144, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.123189, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.035246, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.304348, "worst_return": -0.840626, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.3125, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.151208, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.130435, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.333333, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.041667, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.32, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.428571, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", 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0.027765, "relative_strength": -29.000896, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.734522, "energy": 86.271902, "activity_lines": [ 0.028267, 0.031218, 0.037557, 0.041187 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.028, "volume": 478900, "typical_volume": 1304609.55, "trend": 0.044867, "fair_value": 0.027842, "relative_strength": -32.979416, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.885388, "energy": 65.999394, "activity_lines": [ 0.028133, 0.029927, 0.036276, 0.040073 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.029, "volume": 1150003, "typical_volume": 1196917.45, "trend": 0.044167, "fair_value": 0.027906, "relative_strength": -32.65813, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.61533, "energy": 62.527043, "activity_lines": [ 0.0284, 0.029218, 0.035195, 0.039049 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }