{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e6658e5a-7871-4472-b3f0-cdad23c07a48", "symbol": "SPEL", "name": "UBS S&P 500 ESG Elite UCITS ETF USD acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 61.276, "architecture_energy": 54.487, "architecture_maturity": 67.565, "architecture_confidence": 79.989, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.12, "rotation_up": 42.5, "upward_expansion": 70.17, "deceleration": 88.33, "rotation_down": 27.97, "downward_expansion": 22.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.531334, 24.638273, 23.984, 23.087054 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 24.945, "trend_reference": 22.035, "distance_from_trend": 0.132063, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18.248628, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.366952, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.101502, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.238273, "excess_performance": 0.067381, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.132063, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.077882, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.366952, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.081528, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.031015, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007844, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.238273, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.337026, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 81487, "relative_activity": 1.795271, "balance": 1.337026, "dry_up": 1.783749, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.024978, "annualized_volatility": 0.132652, "from_high_reference": -0.014032, "from_low_reference": 0.38892 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.035, "fair_value_reference": 18.248628, "structural_low": 18.938, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.012214, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.017522, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.081074, "worst_return": -0.063105, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.030961, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.007615, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.194708, "worst_return": -0.164318, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.013712, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.122225, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.199972, "worst_return": -0.07934, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.103383, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.12176, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.008693, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.006178, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.099084, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.032152, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.052328, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.130863, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 14.386, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 228.25, "trend": 13.145, "fair_value": 12.843698, "relative_strength": 0.552387, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", 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"fair_value": 18.118609, "relative_strength": 5.272565, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.332474, "energy": 60.952073, "activity_lines": [ 24.616333, 24.622273, 23.621162, 22.736409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.110001, "volume": 104901, "typical_volume": 41693.15, "trend": 21.878833, "fair_value": 18.180942, "relative_strength": 2.69177, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.298118, "energy": 51.798927, "activity_lines": [ 24.398001, 24.562364, 23.772938, 22.889237 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.945, "volume": 81487, "typical_volume": 45389.8, "trend": 22.035, "fair_value": 18.248628, "relative_strength": 3.101502, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.27557, "energy": 54.48664, "activity_lines": [ 24.531334, 24.638273, 23.984, 23.087054 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }