{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e666e22c-b282-4aae-ba2e-88658ca8d502", "symbol": "IQE", "name": "IQE plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 26.874, "architecture_energy": 14.248, "architecture_maturity": 30.753, "architecture_confidence": 89.506, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.67, "rotation_up": 31.44, "upward_expansion": 49.63, "deceleration": 76.35, "rotation_down": 26.93, "downward_expansion": 27.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.433667, 0.437245, 0.443252, 0.404409 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.47, "trend_reference": 0.331633, "distance_from_trend": 0.417228, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.196609, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.390528, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 103.566107, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 4.934343, "excess_performance": 4.883108, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.417228, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.64739, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.390528, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.276579, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 1.035661, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.392854, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 4.934343, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.451653, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 94274008, "relative_activity": 0.717872, "balance": 0.451653, "dry_up": 0.682815, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.229133, "annualized_volatility": 1.36035, "from_high_reference": -0.355281, "from_low_reference": 9.09667 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.331633, "fair_value_reference": 0.196609, "structural_low": 0.08, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.050622, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.062438, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.43476, "worst_return": -0.259055, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.04644, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.015027, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.768603, "worst_return": -0.585714, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.225313, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.279359, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.625, "worst_return": -0.425714, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"relative_strength": 79.4666, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.792179, "energy": 16.485533, "activity_lines": [ 0.4123, 0.4364, 0.430858, 0.376569 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.4885, "volume": 93939077, "typical_volume": 132246351.6, "trend": 0.307097, "fair_value": 0.193561, "relative_strength": 126.760201, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.753248, "energy": 19.570908, "activity_lines": [ 0.429733, 0.443655, 0.43985, 0.389216 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.391, "volume": 90753010, "typical_volume": 131775619.25, "trend": 0.318413, "fair_value": 0.194823, "relative_strength": 75.05677, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.595892, "energy": 12.402504, "activity_lines": [ 0.415967, 0.432664, 0.438167, 0.394629 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.47, "volume": 94274008, "typical_volume": 131324173.75, "trend": 0.331633, "fair_value": 0.196609, "relative_strength": 103.566107, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.873512, "energy": 14.247558, "activity_lines": [ 0.433667, 0.437245, 0.443252, 0.404409 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }