{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e674ed40-9e8e-4dbb-a0c0-f409f54aec54", "symbol": "AVS", "name": "ASM International NV", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 7.193, "architecture_energy": 23.472, "architecture_maturity": 66.313, "architecture_confidence": 72.498, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 64.54, "rotation_up": 15.8, "upward_expansion": 41.96, "deceleration": 87.99, "rotation_down": 40.74, "downward_expansion": 31.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 835.480009, 882.032731, 886.462988, 850.009508 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 854.400024, "trend_reference": 801.186725, "distance_from_trend": 0.066418, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 569.692058, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.499758, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 17.693567, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.252468, "excess_performance": 0.187829, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.066418, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.194424, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.499758, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.159365, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.176936, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.344879, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.252468, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.643205, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 704, "relative_activity": 0.730215, "balance": 0.643205, "dry_up": 1.037237, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.094016, "annualized_volatility": 0.472834, "from_high_reference": -0.19548, "from_low_reference": 1.135151 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 801.186725, "fair_value_reference": 569.692058, "structural_low": 620.012385, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.102448, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": 0.11864, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.385153, "worst_return": -0.216882, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.135216, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.062585, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.657993, "worst_return": -0.15925, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.497702, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.327451, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.864994, "worst_return": -0.197476, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.008703, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.176366, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.152713, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.030325, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.113271, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-02", 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.740486, "energy": 59.436427, "activity_lines": [ 962.899996, 948.142364, 888.023546, 836.078647 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 852.400024, "volume": 823, "typical_volume": 1156.5, "trend": 774.663698, "fair_value": 562.128117, "relative_strength": 28.39721, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.417243, "energy": 31.921686, "activity_lines": [ 919.546671, 934.12909, 890.497483, 841.827162 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 862.599976, "volume": 662, "typical_volume": 1038.85, "trend": 786.3295, "fair_value": 564.940296, "relative_strength": 27.016194, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.702163, "energy": 26.834855, "activity_lines": [ 890.133329, 922.381814, 893.267907, 847.50047 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 764.200012, "volume": 1811, "typical_volume": 965.95, "trend": 793.380444, "fair_value": 567.011434, "relative_strength": 9.260803, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -1.999569, "energy": 22.095952, "activity_lines": [ 841.213334, 892.754544, 885.760293, 846.072761 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 854.400024, "volume": 704, "typical_volume": 964.1, "trend": 801.186725, "fair_value": 569.692058, "relative_strength": 17.693567, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 7.193034, "energy": 23.472228, "activity_lines": [ 835.480009, 882.032731, 886.462988, 850.009508 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }