{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e6766c2b-2257-4268-b661-ae511a18c95b", "symbol": "INDBANK", "name": "Indbank Merchant Banking Services Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 83.827, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.943, "architecture_energy": 34.04, "architecture_maturity": 16.096, "architecture_confidence": 84.434, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.22, "rotation_up": 16.21, "upward_expansion": 7.79, "deceleration": 40.38, "rotation_down": 51.54, "downward_expansion": 76.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 32.935999, 33.206909, 33.390143, 33.42428 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 32.959999, "trend_reference": 33.846667, "distance_from_trend": -0.026197, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 38.893462, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.152557, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.296082, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.073897, "excess_performance": -0.030188, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.026197, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02649, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.152557, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054457, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.042961, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.066965, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.073897, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.308852, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 138067, "relative_activity": 0.743943, "balance": 2.308852, "dry_up": 0.71814, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.051018, "annualized_volatility": 0.238434, "from_high_reference": -0.300954, "from_low_reference": 0.166726 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 33.846667, "fair_value_reference": 38.893462, "structural_low": 28.25, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.007786, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": 0.003957, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.247675, "worst_return": -0.160356, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.044053, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.024424, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.220503, "worst_return": -0.395918, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.108029, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.030422, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.243714, "worst_return": -0.249624, "sufficient": true }, 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"regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.060562, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.020349, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.14925, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.154672, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.096398, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.088674, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.13493, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.107533, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.08781, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.023118, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 31.200001, "volume": 1960154, "typical_volume": 1086879.75, "trend": 25.963333, "fair_value": 21.413462, "relative_strength": 11.987471, "stage": 3, "regime": 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-24.929109, "energy": 10.084099, "activity_lines": [ 33.556001, 33.53691, 33.497001, 33.65613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 33.209999, "volume": 134285, "typical_volume": 188944.9, "trend": 34.051667, "fair_value": 38.839231, "relative_strength": -0.274708, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.078636, "energy": 17.607081, "activity_lines": [ 33.414667, 33.486546, 33.500239, 33.59828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 32.349998, "volume": 130428, "typical_volume": 186724.7, "trend": 33.955334, "fair_value": 38.875128, "relative_strength": -5.308771, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.853781, "energy": 32.510562, "activity_lines": [ 33.027333, 33.28, 33.419143, 33.488495 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.959999, "volume": 138067, "typical_volume": 185588.15, "trend": 33.846667, "fair_value": 38.893462, "relative_strength": -4.296082, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.942779, "energy": 34.040035, "activity_lines": [ 32.935999, 33.206909, 33.390143, 33.42428 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }