{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e677a2c9-5fb5-4089-b407-174b2150f0d6", "symbol": "EFCM", "name": "WisdomTree Broad Commodities Longer Dated - EUR Daily Hedged", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 54.266, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 37.999, "architecture_energy": 33.905, "architecture_maturity": 66.477, "architecture_confidence": 47.844, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.9, "rotation_up": 60.38, "upward_expansion": 65.73, "deceleration": 68.26, "rotation_down": 9.13, "downward_expansion": 11.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.967067, 9.838273, 9.9314, 9.923187 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 10.006, "trend_reference": 9.824633, "distance_from_trend": 0.01846, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.289776, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.207029, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.785634, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.083487, "excess_performance": -0.087405, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.01846, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041775, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.207029, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.071257, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.067856, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.107303, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.083487, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.581595, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8653, "relative_activity": 1.281186, "balance": 1.581595, "dry_up": 1.399377, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.022894, "annualized_volatility": 0.128605, "from_high_reference": -0.064685, "from_low_reference": 0.264022 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.824633, "fair_value_reference": 8.289776, "structural_low": 9.046, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.002539, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.005867, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.042666, "worst_return": -0.022877, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.013056, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.055335, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.033143, "worst_return": -0.038552, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.037188, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.185745, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.073473, "worst_return": -0.012224, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.019151, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.016133, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.033935, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.030292, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 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9.765, 9.925543, 9.871832 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.108, "volume": 10920, "typical_volume": 6328.55, "trend": 9.745833, "fair_value": 8.263481, "relative_strength": -2.532262, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.696509, "energy": 18.090473, "activity_lines": [ 9.834333, 9.800655, 9.937319, 9.898331 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.913, "volume": 11093, "typical_volume": 6490.4, "trend": 9.7879, "fair_value": 8.276244, "relative_strength": -4.966884, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.851309, "energy": 23.948106, "activity_lines": [ 9.902933, 9.806818, 9.929395, 9.909116 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.006, "volume": 8653, "typical_volume": 6753.9, "trend": 9.824633, "fair_value": 8.289776, "relative_strength": -6.785634, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.998637, "energy": 33.905361, "activity_lines": [ 9.967067, 9.838273, 9.9314, 9.923187 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }