{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e6824982-a504-4c30-935a-62f899e0bba4", "symbol": "TAN", "name": "Invesco Solar ETF", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 83.471, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -42.257, "architecture_energy": 77.936, "architecture_maturity": 21.835, "architecture_confidence": 81.558, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.8, "rotation_up": 14.01, "upward_expansion": 33.54, "deceleration": 49.07, "rotation_down": 81.32, "downward_expansion": 65.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 903.949341, 963.848185, 1019.81314, 1018.337416 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 883.630005, "trend_reference": 1007.494664, "distance_from_trend": -0.122943, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 818.118517, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.080076, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.854636, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.079552, "excess_performance": -0.024885, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.122943, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046921, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.080076, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.159736, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.078546, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.178174, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.079552, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.556436, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 25, "relative_activity": 0.311526, "balance": 0.556436, "dry_up": 1.65109, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.060865, "annualized_volatility": 0.397576, "from_high_reference": -0.290257, "from_low_reference": 0.282482 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1007.494664, "fair_value_reference": 818.118517, "structural_low": 855.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.068415, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.031313, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.194092, "worst_return": -0.119918, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.07849, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.00791, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.126302, "worst_return": 0.030678, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.077252, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.055206, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.097887, "worst_return": 0.056618, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"relative_strength": -1.893032, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -44.210754, "energy": 56.096155, "activity_lines": [ 964.305347, 1038.871453, 1051.776805, 1036.469716 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 855.0, "volume": 500, "typical_volume": 79.0, "trend": 1008.74033, "fair_value": 819.189526, "relative_strength": -10.677842, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -56.019417, "energy": 79.371009, "activity_lines": [ 923.426009, 997.075273, 1034.147948, 1026.40905 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 883.630005, "volume": 25, "typical_volume": 80.25, "trend": 1007.494664, "fair_value": 818.118517, "relative_strength": -7.854636, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -42.256529, "energy": 77.936407, "activity_lines": [ 903.949341, 963.848185, 1019.81314, 1018.337416 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }